NIFTYBANK: Base and its effects!
In the world of statistics, the base effect plays a larger role, hence any data that comes quite extradinary, these effects are factored into.
When the Press asked the J Powell about yesterday's data and if FED members considered that and if yes what his opinion about.
1. The data was discussed, members have been given how to factor that, some of them factored, but not all of them (clearly majority not factored)
2. The second half of last year base, the assumption is the PCE numbers (which again raised), will be higher to warrant the increase, again a conservative path and not a forecast, still a data dependent FED.
3. The inflation data is driven largely by the energy fall and the air travel fall (that is to stay the increase is less or a fall)
4. The unemployment rate moved but still driven by emigrants and lot of work to do.
In sum, FED is not in a hurry, most importantly the fear of rate hike is out of the consideration, while hopes for rate cuts continue, maybe we may see two instead of one that is pencilled in. This again is a grate climbed down from six cuts that was touted last year.
From our data, inflation falls, again it is incoming inflation that what is seen. This inflation is before the elections, lots of efforts have been placed to contain, hence markets likely to ignore.
The manufacturing has come down, while Industrial production increased. Thus, focus is on what the internals tell, a blip or larger area of focus or concern.
The big picture shows double Harami, part of the larger triangle pattern, while the PIP shows the channel pattern.
In ability to close above psychological 50K for now the concern, today may be a different day, let's see. Fair to assume contracting range, thus place 49300-50300
Support 49650-49350-49150
Supply 50150-50330-50550
When the Press asked the J Powell about yesterday's data and if FED members considered that and if yes what his opinion about.
1. The data was discussed, members have been given how to factor that, some of them factored, but not all of them (clearly majority not factored)
2. The second half of last year base, the assumption is the PCE numbers (which again raised), will be higher to warrant the increase, again a conservative path and not a forecast, still a data dependent FED.
3. The inflation data is driven largely by the energy fall and the air travel fall (that is to stay the increase is less or a fall)
4. The unemployment rate moved but still driven by emigrants and lot of work to do.
In sum, FED is not in a hurry, most importantly the fear of rate hike is out of the consideration, while hopes for rate cuts continue, maybe we may see two instead of one that is pencilled in. This again is a grate climbed down from six cuts that was touted last year.
From our data, inflation falls, again it is incoming inflation that what is seen. This inflation is before the elections, lots of efforts have been placed to contain, hence markets likely to ignore.
The manufacturing has come down, while Industrial production increased. Thus, focus is on what the internals tell, a blip or larger area of focus or concern.
The big picture shows double Harami, part of the larger triangle pattern, while the PIP shows the channel pattern.
In ability to close above psychological 50K for now the concern, today may be a different day, let's see. Fair to assume contracting range, thus place 49300-50300
Support 49650-49350-49150
Supply 50150-50330-50550
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