BABA (Alibaba Group Holdings) | 1D Chart Outlook

Published by WaverVanir International LLC | 06/11/2025

BABA has broken out of its multi-year base and is now in a potential macro reversal structure. The current retracement near $120 could act as a higher low before a continuation toward the unfilled liquidity zone around $183.13, a major inefficiency level from late 2021.

🔍 Key Technicals:

✅ Long accumulation between 2022–2024

🚀 Breakout above $100 confirmed by strong volume

🔁 Pullback into prior breakout zone (~$115–$120) could offer optimal re-entry

📈 Target: $183.13 (Gap-fill + structural resistance)

📉 Risk Management:

🛑 Invalid below $105 (structure break)

🎯 Risk/Reward favorable if entries are scaled in sub-$125

📊 Probability Weighted Bias:

Bullish Continuation: 65%

Consolidation: 25%

Breakdown/Invalidation: 10%

🧠 Macro Catalyst Watch:

China stimulus or regulatory easing 📉🪙

Fed rate pivot & USD weakness 💵🕊️

Earnings growth rebound in Alibaba’s cloud segment 🌐📊

This setup reflects asymmetric potential as tech re-rates globally. Risk-defined, sentiment-watching, and catalyst-aware traders may consider positioning for a medium-term swing.

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