Why BABA Alibaba Could Rebound Strongly by Year-End 2025

If you haven`t bought BABA before the recent rally:

What you need to know:
BABA’s fundamentals, fueled by e-commerce, cloud, and AI, support its technical bullishness:
E-commerce and Cloud Rebound:
Q1 2025 revenue grew 7% year-over-year, with Taobao/Tmall rebounding and cloud revenue surging due to AI demand.

Alibaba’s cloud division, China’s largest, benefits from hyperscaler AI workloads, with 15% profit margin projections by 2029.

AI Leadership:
BABA’s AI assistant and generative AI tools drove a 70% stock surge in early 2025, positioning it as a leader in China’s AI race.
At 12x forward P/E with 8% revenue CAGR, BABA is undervalued (fair value ~$162).

Share Buybacks:
Aggressive share repurchasing (6% annual reduction) boosts EPS, with $1 trillion GMV reinforcing e-commerce dominance.

Macro Tailwinds:
Easing CCP regulations and China’s stimulus measures (e.g., rate cuts) support BABA’s rally.
Minimal U.S. exposure insulates BABA from trade war risks.


Conclusion: BABA’s Path to $168
BABA’s technicals, with a bullish breaker and wedge, signal a breakout above $125–$130, targeting $150–$168 by year-end 2025. Fundamentally, its e-commerce dominance, cloud/AI growth, and undervaluation make it a standout. Traders should buy dips near $110–$115 or await a $130 breakout. With stimulus and buybacks as catalysts, BABA is set to soar.

Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.