BA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10

🧾 BA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Timeframe: 5 trading days
Catalysts: Short-term exhaustion signals despite positive news
Trade Type: Single-leg PUT option

🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence
Grok Bullish 217.50C $0.79 $1.19 $0.40 65%
Claude Bearish 205.00P $0.95 $1.50–2.00 $0.50 72%
Llama Bearish 205.00P $0.95 $1.14 $0.48 70%
Gemini Bearish 202.50P $0.55 $1.00–1.10 $0.25 65%
DeepSeek Bearish 205.00P $0.95 $1.90 $0.47 60%

✅ Consensus: Moderately Bearish
📉 Setup: Tactical mean-reversion play from overbought RSI and MACD divergence
⚠️ Outlier: Grok sees bullish continuation toward $217.50 (minority view)

🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap
Short-Term: 5-min RSI ~88 (overbought), price hugging upper Bollinger Band

Daily Chart: MACD bearish divergence or slowing momentum

Sentiment: Mixed headlines—China aircraft deliveries positive, but max pain at $207.50 acts as gravitational pull

VIX: Low (≈16.8), suggesting limited volatility but a stable short bias

✅ Final Trade Recommendation
Parameter Value
Instrument BA
Strategy Weekly naked put
Strike $205.00
Entry Price $0.95 (ask)
Profit Target $1.50 (≈58% gain)
Stop-Loss $0.50 (≈47% premium loss)
Size 1 contract (risk ≤2% of account)
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 70%

🎯 Rationale: Consensus expects BA to retrace from short-term overbought condition back toward max pain zone (~$207.50). Four out of five models favor put option setups.

⚠️ Risk Factors
A strong gap above $211.50 invalidates short thesis → cut immediately

Strong fundamentals (China fleet growth, aviation sector strength) could support further upside

VIX staying low = slow downside → puts may decay rapidly

Use limit order on open to manage slippage risk

📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT
🎯 Instrument: BA
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: 205.00
💵 Entry Price: 0.95
🎯 Profit Target: 1.50
🛑 Stop Loss: 0.50
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
📏 Size: 1 contract
📈 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: open
🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 16:10:44 EDT