Australian SP200 looking for a drop. ie: short Australia

20 Haz 2019

Pitchforks are handy for predicting future trend directions. The longer term has been directed by that big upward facing pitchfork over the last few years, but I have a feeling once this upper resistance level is hitexpect to see some serious headwinds. Aussie bond yields are dropping like rocks at the moment and the currency is failing against all peers. Plus every Hedgefund manager and his dog are lining up to short the Aussie housing market which is at levels that no other part of the world is experienceing. In terms of commodities, of which Australia’s economy is made up of the exports thereof, all are dropping except for the one that is most crucial; iron ore. However, I cant see how the price of this can remain high for too much longer. If a drop happens there expect a rough landing for Australia; if im not mistaken about 40% of Australia’s economy is based on iron ore exports to china, and a further 30% of the economy after that is the housing market.

So looking back at the technicals, if this peak is not to turn into support, I’m tipping a drop and then a fall in line with that smaller pitchfork. Trade accordingly.

10 Eki 2019

Not

Nailed it. Looking like we could be forming a double top

28 Kas 2019

Not

Lol, called it too soon. Looks like the RBA dropping its pants had a magical effect on the market. I should have known that a central bank wasnt going to give up a fight like that so easily.