Sometimes remaining on the sideline is the better position!

20 Oca 2017

Having fallen so aggressively from H4 resistance at 0.7561 on Wednesday (sparked by the slightly hawkish words of Fed Chair Janet Yellen), the commodity currency caught a fresh bid from the 0.75 handle going into the early hours of yesterday’s session. This, as far as we can see, was reinforced by Aussie employment data which came in relatively positive, adding 13,500 new jobs in December. Unemployment, nevertheless, was not so upbeat, registering 5.8% vs. expected 5.7%.

Despite an earnest attempt from the bulls, however, price failed to sustain gains beyond the aforementioned H4 resistance level. Although a H4 close above this line would be considered a bullish cue (even more so when one takes into account that weekly action looks to be on course to close above weekly supply at 0.7524-0.7450), it may be worth noting that price will still be trading within the walls of a daily supply zone seen at 0.7581-0.7551. Therefore, our team will only consider becoming buyers if, and only if, there is a daily close seen above this barrier.

Our suggestions: Through the simple lens of a technical trader, sitting on your hands seems to be the best bet today. Once the market closes for the week, we can determine direction with more precision. For example, a weekly close above weekly supply, along with a daily close above daily supply would, in our opinion, set the tone for next week’s trading. It’ll be interesting to see how today pans out given Trump’s inauguration and speech.

Data points to consider: Chinese growth and industrial production figures set to be released at 2am. Fed Chair Yellen speaks at 1am, FOMC member Harker speaks at 2pm GMT, Trump’s inauguration and speech (tentative).