Our take on the Aussie's recent movements...

3 Şub 2017

Yesterday’s action began with Australia’s trade balance reporting a 3.5b surplus in December, up from $2.0 b in November. The Aussie bulls immediately rose up and took charge, rallying over 70 pips on the day (open/close). Psychological resistance 0.76 was consumed during the bullish assault, allowing price to challenge the H4 channel resistance extended from the high 0.7569. As you can see, price whipsawed through this upper barrier and missed connecting with the 0.77 handle by only a few pips before descending lower into the close. With the H4 candles now trading back within the H4 ascending channel, will we see price tumble lower to connect with the H4 channel support drawn from the low 0.7449?

According to the higher-timeframe structures, the only way is up! Both the weekly and daily charts show little resistance on the horizon, with the closest barrier set at 0.7720: a daily resistance level that is located 30 or so pips ahead of a weekly supply at 0.7849-0.7752 (the next upside target on the weekly scale).

Our suggestions: While it is tempting to short back into the H4 channel zone, we feel the better location to trade from is around the 0.76 boundary. Building a case for entry here we have the following: the H4 channel support taken from the low 0.7449, a H4 61.8% Fib support at 0.7580, February’s opening level at 0.7577 and of course, the top edge of a daily support area at 0.7581 (yellow rectangle). This trade zone will remain valid as long as price does NOT connect with the above noted daily resistance beforehand.

Data points to consider: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 1.45am. US employment report at 1.30pm, FOMC member Evans speaks at 2.15pm and the US ISM non-manufacturing reading can be viewed at 3pm GMT.