AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 02

2 Ara 2024

1. Seasonality:

During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish.

2. COT Report:

The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD.

3. Fundamental Analysis:

LEI

The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD.

Endogenous Factors

These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias.

Exogenous Factors

Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend.

4. Technical Analysis:

AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint.

Summary

The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential.

Bias

The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD.

Trade Plan

Entry: 0.64746
SL: 0.65130
TP: 0.64362

4 Ara 2024

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

TP Hit