Dead cat bounce on AUD/JPY?

5 Eki 2023

Once again we saw AUD/JPY rally above 96 before reversing lower, which is a pattern we have seen occur four times since January 2022. A shooting start reversal formed on Friday and the cross fell around -4% Tuesday’s low, breaking a bullish trendline before finding support at the 200-day EMA, February high and 96 handle.

• We’ve seen two modest up days since, but now we’re looking for evidence of a swing high around 95 – as this houses the weekly S1 pivot, 50% retracement level and cycle highs.
  
• The initial target is 94, a break of which brings 93 in focus. But if risk off returns, then a break of 93 seems plausible.