AUDCHF: Mixed Fundamentals - BEARISH BIAS in 1st half of Dec24

ABOUT GLOBAL LEI and GDP
1. During H2 of 2024, the Global LEI and GDP are INCREASING.
2. The AUD and CHF pair was picked because their LEIs and GDP trends are moving in opposite direction.
3. Good Golbal GDP would means we are in RISK-ON situation, so it is good for AUD.

AUDCHF: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY
LEI DECREASING: AUD LEI are decreasing but CHF LEI are increasing. Overal LEI BIAS BEARISH for AUDCHF.
ENDO INCREASING: AUDCHF collective ENDO score is INCREASING from May24. This means AUD is Strong as compared with CHF. ENDO BIAS BULLISH for AUDCHF.
EXOs MIX DECREASING: EXOs of AUD are slowly IMPROVING but overall AUDCHF EXO Bias is MIX DECREASING mainly because of CHF GDP is improving more than AUD. EXO BEARISH BIAS FOR AUDCHF.
EXO+LEI INCREASING:
FINAL SCORE INCREASING: BIAS BULLISH for AUDCHF

COT REPORT ANALYSIS
As per overall COT analysis, AUDCHF is SHORT opportunity in Dec2024. BIAS BEARISH for AUDCHF

AUDCHF: SEASONAL ANALYSIS
1. First week of DEC: 2-6 Dec: AUDCHF BEARISH
2. From 2nd to 3rd Week of DEC: 9-13 Dec: AUDCHF SIDEWAYS because two Interest Rate announecments in the same week hence avoid trading in this week.
3. 4th Week of DEC: 23 - 27 Dec, AUD is BULLISH and CHF is BEARISH. Hence BULLISH BIAS for AUDCHF

NEWS EVENTS
1. CHF: CPI: 03-Dec-24 (11:30 AM GMT+4)
2. AUD: GDP q/q: 04-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4)
3. AUD: Interest Rate News: 10-Dec-24 (7:30 AM GMT+4)
4. CHF: Interest Rate: 12-Dec-24 (12:30 PM GMT+4)
5. AUD: Unemployment Rate: 12-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4)

FUNDAMENTAL TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON AUDCHF - MIXED BEARISH (Rely on Tech Analysis)
1. As per EXOs and LEIs, BEARISH BIAS for AUDCHF
2. As per ENDO and Collectively Fundamentals are BULLISH BIAS for AUDCHF
3. "Summary 3 Score" also giving MIX BIAS indication.
4. Conditionaing Bias: Montly BULLISH BIAS for AUDCHF.
5. COT Analysis: BEARISH BIAS for AUDCHF
6. 1st Week of Dec SEASONALS: BEARISH BIAS for AUDCHF.

FINAL BIAS: MIXED BEARISH because of MIXED Fundamental signals but BEARISH has a higher probabiity as it matches Seasonals as well as EXOs have a higher precedence over ENDOs. Also rely on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, mapped with key news dates. But for first week till 9th of Dec BEARISH probability is strong.

The Interest Rate Announcements on 10th (AUD) and 12th (CHF) will have a major impact on AUDCHF, if there will be any change in their existing Interest rates.

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: BEARISH to SIDEWAYS as per DOW.
DIVERGENCE: No
Volume Div: No
HEIKIN-ASHI: BEARISH confirmed till Weekly/Monthly support of 0.56140.
PATTERN: Head and shoulder pattern is getting formed and price approaching shoulder level of 0.56140
FIB: N/A
S&R: Strong Weekly/Monthly support of 0.56140 and current price is 0.564. High probability that this support will be tested and then BULLISH reversal could be seen.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement.
Scho-RSI: Bellow level 20 and still showing BEARISH momentum.

DAILY TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation
BUY STOP: 0.57393, SL: 0.54931,
TP1: 05855 (Around then FIB level 23.60%)
TP2: 0.59123 (Around then FIB level 38.20%)

4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: BEARISH as per DOW.
DIVERGENCE: No
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: Price could reach the FIB extended level of 23.60 till 0.555.
S&R: Support at 0.56140 is about to be broken and next level for support will be 0.555.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement.
Scho-RSI: Already below 20 and side ways. Bullish retracement could be expected.
4H TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation
BUY STOP: 0.57393, SL: 0.54931,
TP1: 05855 (Around then FIB level 23.60%)
TP2: 0.59123 (Around then FIB level 38.20%)

1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Strong BEARISH
DIVERGENCE: No, hence BEARISH moement will continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: Price could reach the FIB extended level of 23.60% till 0.5564.
S&R: FIB Level of 23.60% at 0.5564 will play as next support, that will be tested.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Already below 20 and side ways. Bullish retracement could expected after reaching 0.5564.
1H TRADE PLAY: BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 0.5605, SL: 0.56769,
TP1: 0.5531
TP2: 0.5458