AU200 ~ Commodities or Follow US Markets? ASX Wants Both! (2H)

11 Ara 2023

AU200 chart mapping/analysis.

ASX grinding higher into EOY, benefitting from relative strength in global commodities & precious metals.

Trading scenarios into EOY:

• Continued commodity strength + US bullish momentum = rally into 23.6% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue dotted) confluence zone.
  
• Rally would coincide with re-test of bearish breakdown from pennant pattern.
  
• Commodity weakness + US market capitulation = re-test of 38.2% Fib, into horizontal line (yellow dashed) / 200SMA / lower range of ascending parallel channel (green dashed) uber confluence zone.
  

14 Ara 2023

Not

AU200/ASX chart update (Thurs 14/12):

• ASX decides to follow US market lead.
  
• Parabolic moves = break above (& held) upper range ascending parallel channel (green, dashed).
  
• Currently sitting between parallel channel & descending trend-line (light blue, dotted).
  
• Looking for test of overhead trend-line, followed by reversal back into parallel channel, TBC.