APOLLOHOSP – Ranging Channel Breakout Case Study (Educational)

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📊 APOLLOHOSP – Technical & Fundamental Educational Snapshot
Ticker: NSE: APOLLOHOSP | Sector: 🏥 Hospitals & Healthcare Services
CMP: ₹7,808.50 ▲ (as of 13 Aug 2025)
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (Moderately Bullish Setup – Educational Purposes Only)
Pattern Observed: 📈 Ranging Channel Breakout
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“Apollo Hospitals is on fire! After reporting a stunning 42% rise in Q1 net profit, the stock zoomed nearly 8%, now hovering near its 52-week high. Technical charts are flashing a powerful ‘Strong Buy’ signal across multiple indicators—momentum is undeniable. With balanced options interest and analyst targets pegged around ₹8,100, the stock may still have room to run. A breakout past ₹7,800 could set the stage for the next leg higher!”
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Chart Pattern & Technical Analysis:
Close: ₹7,808.5 — strong bullish momentum after Ranging Channel breakout.
Candle: Big bullish bar with multiple confirmations — 52-week breakout, RSI breakout, MACD crossover, Bollinger Band breakout, bullish SuperTrend.
Momentum: WVAP bullish; RSI 68, MACD Buy, CCI 235, Stochastic 96.

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Volume Analysis:
Volume: 2.29M shares traded — 5× the 20-day average (429.86K).
Signal: Exceptional participation confirming a decisive 20-day volume breakout.
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Support & Resistance:
Resistance: ₹7,969, ₹8,130, ₹8,420.
Support: ₹7,518, ₹7,228, ₹7,060.7.
Outlook: Possible breakout opportunity with swing trade potential.

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Learnings:
Q1 FY26 Results: PAT ↑ ~42% YoY to ₹433 cr; revenue ↑ ~15% YoY to ₹5,842 cr; stock rallied 5–6% post-results.
AI Focus: Plans to double AI investments in 2–3 years to boost efficiency & patient outcomes.
Value Unlocking: Spin-off & listing of digital health & pharmacy unit in 18–21 months.
Share Swap: 195.2 shares in new entity for every 100 Apollo shares; Apollo to retain ~15% stake.
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Investment Outlook & Conclusion:

📈 Bullish Case:
5th straight quarter of profit growth; Q1 beat estimates.
Expanding margins via premium care, diagnostics, and digital.
Demerger of digital health & pharmacy arm could unlock value.
AI investments to enhance efficiency & returns.
Rising insurance penetration & healthcare spending favor leaders.
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📉 Bearish Case:
Premium valuation risks de-rating if growth slows.
Demerger success hinges on smooth execution.
Regulatory changes could impact margins.
Heavy capex & competition may delay returns.
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📅 Short vs Long Term:
Short-term (1–3M): Possible follow-through gains from Q1 beat; track Q2 updates & demerger progress.
Long-term (12–24M): Growth from core hospitals + value creation via digital arm listing & AI-driven efficiency.
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📊 STWP Trade Analysis:
Trend: Bullish continuation — price broke key range and sustained momentum.
Sample Trade Setup:
Entry: ₹7,840 | Stop: ₹7,011.95
Reference Levels: ₹8,668 (~1:1 RR), ₹9,496 (~1:2 RR)
💡 These prices are only for demonstrating risk–reward calculations and position planning — not for live execution.
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Conservative Setup:
Entry Zone: ₹7,808.50–₹7,840 | Stop: ₹7,723.24
Reference Levels: ₹8,064, ₹8,235
(For learning position sizing and risk control)
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Pullback Watch:
Zone: ₹7,717.56 | Stop: ₹7,594 | Potential retest area
Potential Use: Studying pullback retests in breakout structures.
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Possible Demand Zone(on Daily Time Frame): 7285 - 7205 | SL 7196.45
This is for observing historical demand behaviour — not a call to buy.

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Market View (Based on Current Data):
Overall Bias: Bullish positioning.
Trend: Uptrend likely if ₹7,800–₹7,850 holds as support.
Volatility: Moderate (IV ~22–26).
OI Insight: Strong call writing above spot & put writing below — bullish stance with support defense.
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🔍 Option Structures – For Learning Purpose
(Prices, Greeks & OI data are from market snapshot on 13 Aug 2025)
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7800 CE – LTP ₹155.60
📊 Delta: 0.54 | Theta: -6.27 | IV: 22.39%
💡 Breakeven: ₹7,955.60
Why it’s worth studying:
ATM strike with quick reaction to spot moves (Delta ~0.50)
Strong OI build-up (+1.52L) & high liquidity (37k contracts)
Positioned just above spot; could capture momentum on a 7,850+ breakout
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7600 PE – LTP ₹66.60 | Contra View
📊 Delta: -0.27 | Theta: -4.19 | IV: 25.18%
💡 Breakeven: ₹7,533.40
Why study it:
Strong short build-up in Puts (+3.32L OI) shows confidence price stays above this level
~200 pts below spot, acting as a buffer support zone
Higher IV means time decay favours sellers if support holds
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Bull Call Spread
🟢 Buy: 7800 CE @ ₹155.60
🔴 Sell: 8000 CE @ ₹72.20
💰 Net Debit: ₹83.40 | Breakeven: ₹7,883.40
Why study it:
Lowers cost vs. naked CE buy by pairing ATM buy with OTM sell
Positive delta for upside, with loss capped to net debit
8000 strike OI acts as a profit cap zone, helping define risk-reward
Reduces theta decay compared to a single long option
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📘 My Trading Setup Rules
Avoid Gap Plays
→ Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs.
Breakout Entry Only
→ Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades).
Watch Volume for Confirmation
→ Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade.
Enter on Strong Candle + Volume
→ Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade.
Defined Risk:Reward Only
→ Take trades only if R:R is favorable (ideally ≥ 1:2).
Premium Disclaimer
→ Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution.
Time Frame Preference
→ Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups.
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⚠️ Disclaimer – Please Read Carefully
The information shared here is meant purely for learning and awareness. It is not a buy or sell recommendation and should not be taken as investment advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment advisor, and all views expressed are based on personal study, chart patterns, and publicly available market data.
Trading — whether in stocks or options — carries risk. Markets can move unexpectedly, and losses can sometimes be larger than the money you have invested. Past performance or past setups do not guarantee future results.
If you are a beginner, treat this as a guide to understand how the market works — practice on paper trades before risking real money. If you are an experienced trader, remember to assess your own risk, position sizing, and strategy suitability before entering any trade.
Data, prices, and analysis are based on information available as of 12 August 2025, and market conditions can change at any time. Always verify with reliable sources and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any real trading decision.
By reading, watching, or engaging with this content, you acknowledge that you take full responsibility for your own trades and investments.
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