ASX 200 SPI Futures Test Key Support as RBA Decision Looms

With disappointing earnings from major names like Westpac and BHP in recent days, and with more than three rate cuts priced for this year, ASX 200 SPI futures look vulnerable to downside heading into today’s RBA policy decision.

They’re now testing major uptrend support—a level that has attracted buyers in recent months. While it’s holding for now, the technical picture is far less convincing for bulls than on previous occasions.

Friday’s false break above the former record highs formed a shooting star daily candle, a clear reversal signal. While the price bounced off the uptrend again on Monday, unlike past instances, this one didn’t last with the price quickly gravitating back towards it.

RSI (14) has diverged from price, flashing a bearish signal, while MACD is curling up and looks close to confirming with a crossover from above.

Everything comes across as heavy.

A break of the uptrend would put the 50DMA in focus as an initial target for bears, with further downside levels at 8280, 8135, and the key 200DMA. A stop above the uptrend would help manage reversal risk.

If support holds, an alternative approach would be to set longs ahead of it with a stop beneath for protection. Potential upside targets include 8546 and 8581.

Good luck!
DS