Amazon (AMZN) closed at $224.19 today, following a high of $225.36 and an open at $222.51. While the stock remains above the 21, 50, and 200 EMAs, signaling a generally bullish trend in the medium term, today’s price action suggests hesitation in the short term. Adding to this cautious outlook, the MACD shows a bearish crossover, which could confirm a potential slowdown or pullback if downward momentum continues into Monday.
Key Levels to Watch for Monday:
**Resistance at $225.36: Today's high has established a near-term resistance level. If AMZN cannot break above this mark early in the session, it may continue to face selling pressure. A strong move and close above this level would be a positive sign for the bulls.
**Support at $222.51 (Open): The open price from today could act as an immediate support level. A hold above this level would keep the bullish outlook intact. However, a break below could lead to a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which has recently acted as strong support.
**Fibonacci Levels: AMZN is struggling to close above the 38.2% Fib retracement around $228-$230, indicating resistance in this area. Breaking above this zone is crucial for resuming the bullish trend.
What to Expect:
*Bearish MACD Crossover: The MACD's bearish crossover indicates a potential shift in momentum to the downside. If this signal gains confirmation with continued price weakness on Monday, we may see a deeper retracement or sideways action.
*Bullish Scenario: If AMZN breaks above $225.36 and sustains momentum, it could push toward the next resistance levels and potentially retest $233.00, the previous high.
*Bearish or Consolidation Scenario: If AMZN fails to reclaim $225.36 and breaks below $222.51, the next move could test support near the 61.8% Fib level. A confirmed bearish MACD crossover would add weight to this scenario.
Key Indicators to Watch:
MACD Confirmation: Pay close attention to whether the MACD crossover leads to further downside momentum. This will be a crucial signal for determining the short-term trend.
RSI: The RSI remains below overbought conditions (70). A rising RSI would support bullish momentum, while a drop back toward neutral levels would indicate weakness.
Monday’s price action hinges on AMZN’s ability to reclaim $225.36 resistance and sustain momentum. The bearish MACD crossover introduces a cautionary note, suggesting a potential pullback or sideways action unless bulls regain control. A move above the 38.2% Fib retracement could confirm bullish continuation, while a failure to hold $222.51 may result in a deeper retracement.
Stay tuned for further updates as we monitor these key levels and indicators going into next week!
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