AION - Possible reversal short term swing trade

9 Haz 2018

After some analysis on AION, I'm seeing the following development:

Category: High risk trade.
Reason: Relatively new coin, so no long history, behaviour can not measured properly enough. Other risk: BTC is (mis)behaving lately, and can ruin the trade.

There is a support zone forming, and we could touch it for the third time. Support is forming a stronger base when it it hit for the third time. I would like to see some more volume though, otherwise it could just fall through it.

ADX indicator of DMI is close to the low region of 9 to 11, which meant before that the market is about to make a decision of a direction again. The last two times ADX was down so low, it was a strong downtrend, but at these low prices it could become a possible upwards reversal.
With ADX so low, we will see soon which direction it will be.

MACD Histogram shows bears are losing power, and is having a positive slope and is about to cross. It remains to be seen if the bulls are strong enough to create a shot term uptrend.

The Stop Loss has been placed at 2550, this is based on the -3 Average True Range level at the local swing low, which was even a false breakout. I do expect this to be low enough. I am not sure if I set a SL or that I only set an alert, because of the manipulated markets, where stoplosses are often killed on purpose, to go up afterwards.

Note: See that false breakout, I did not check AION back then, but that is usually a very good trade setup!

Risk Reward Ratio:
Entry level: 2662
profit target 1: 2865
profit target 2: 3550

Stop Loss: 2470

R/R ratio: 1:4 for Profit target 2
R/R ratio: 1:1 for Profit target 1


Weak points: I'm not so sure about breaking the resistance for the first profit target. Therfore this trade could result in 1:1 R/R ratio, which is not that interesting. Currently, the markets are chaotic and I did not find another good setup yet.


Disclaimer: Ths is an idea, something I might follow myself, and is placed on Tradingview to share and discuss, but it is actualy for myself mostly, to keep a trading diary. It is by no means an advice and I'm not stating what I expect is going to happen.

9 Haz 2018

Not

* A good entry is your first gain *

This is how I entered:

I have chonse ATR channels including RSI to define a good entry.
As you can see, the last 20 bars, you can see that we usually dive below the 10 bar EMA, to -0.5 ATR, which means I placed my entry a bit lower then the entry in the main idea. This is my first gain.

I waited for RSI to enter the green zone, which I have drawn because I see the RSI turn every time, when in this zone. I was not too greedy and have place the order at 2646 for one part, and another part at 2643. This was around -0.5 ATR at that point.

9 Haz 2018

Not

I can't edit the original chart anymore, but I did not post the latest chart including profit target 2, here it is.

18 Haz 2018

İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi

Due to the heavy BTC dump, the Stoploss was hit.
As a good trader, get in slow, get out fast. We had set our SL's and only took a small loss.