ADA - swing trading opportunity

30 Oca 2020

Log scale - We are in a large long term range which has started more or less in August 2018 - With a little imagination we can also see a long term double bottom figure with a neckline at the same level of the upper edge of the range.
You can also clearly see a long term bearish trend line (in red) which cross an important horizontal long term resistance (0,059-0,062). In addition, the Monthly SMA10 is nearby (the weekly EMA50 is also in the same area).

My trading scenario is crystal clear (swing = long term / few weeks maybe months):
When a daily candle will close upper than 0,062 (the resistance), higher than the monthly SMA10 and will break the bearish trend line: I will open a long trade (swing)
Stop loss: bellow the monthly SMA10

Targets:
60% will be sold at 0,1 at the top of the range (+ neck line + monthly EMA21)
I will keep 40% just in case that he will go higher (target = horizontal resistance 0,105-0,122 combined with monthly EMA21)

Estimated probabilities:
80% that the trade will be opened
60% we will reach the neck line
20% we will go higher without major correction

Wait & see...