Is Cardano looking weak?

15 Mar 2021

To provide confidence Cardano is on track to repeat this fractal and continue its rise from March 19, we need to see a couple of things take place:
1) Price appreciation – price needs to rise above the 20MA line and ideally above the 0.236 line at 0.118. – Currently ADA is 5% below this level.
2) Bullish 20 MA cross – the 20MA needs to cross to the upside of the 50MA.
3) Bullish MACD Cross – the MACD needs to cross bullish by March 20.
4) Rising Volume – Volume needs to rise above the average level; and lastly;
5) BTC appreciation – BTC needs to be rising in price. If BTC starts to decline below its March 18 level, this setup is likely to breakdown.

If all those factors are met, and BTC is continuing to show strength, as it did in the previous two ‘Rapid Rise’ phases, then we can be very confident this will be the start of a very bullish run for Cardano.

So far so good, but Cardano has some work to do over the next few days to deserve our confidence.

15 Mar 2021

Not

There you go! BTC corrects and the Cardano fractal breaks. In fact, in hindsight, it probably broke down with the lower low printed at the second green arrow. If BTC turns back up, and rallies to a new high, as I suspect, Cardano will likely follow, but it will be a different structure.

17 Mar 2021

Not

Hmmm... Looking closely, it appears that while there were 3 candle wicks that fell below the line at 1.286, it only closed below it once at $1.262. That is a 1.8% deviance from the line, and in the daily chart it didn't close below it at all. I'm going to call that as a hold. I recognise that it printed a lower low out of sequence of the earlier fractal, but fractals are never exact either. So lets check the other conditions.

1) Price appreciation – Check - price has risen above the 20MA line and above the 0.236 line at 1.118. Currently at 1.35 after reaching 1.45. A big move!
2) Bullish 20 MA cross – Not Yet - the 20MA still needs to cross to the upside of the 50MA, but it is closing the gap and moving in the right direction!
3) Bullish MACD Cross – Check - the MACD has crossed bullish on March 16.
4) Rising Volume – Check - Volume has risen above the average level; and lastly;
5) BTC appreciation – Check - BTC is rising in price. Currently at $58k from a $53k low.

All very encouraging! So what's the price target for the next rapid rise? I'm glad you asked. It might look something like this: