Adani Green – High-Risk Momentum Play with 30% Upside Potential

Summary

Adani Green has broken out above the critical ₹1,020 resistance level with convincing volume and positive price action. The structure suggests a short-term reversal from the prolonged downtrend. Historically, once breakouts are confirmed, the stock has shown rapid upward moves — for instance, a 48.7 percent surge in November 2024 following a similar setup.

The current breakout targets the ₹1,360 zone, which represents a 32 percent move from the breakout level and corresponds to a prior key supply zone.

Target and Time Frame

Target Price: ₹1,360
Estimated Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
(based on previous breakout velocity, momentum strength, and short squeeze potential)

Risks

• Valuation remains extremely stretched with a P/E near 100. The market is pricing in multi-year forward growth
  
• High leverage is a structural concern. Debt-to-equity is 6.6x, and a missed execution milestone or policy change—especially the end of the ISTS waiver in June 2025—could lead to volatility
  
• RSI nearing overbought zone. Minor pullbacks or consolidations may occur before continuation
  

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Please do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.