$ABNB going up on hopium; Fair value $100-120

17 Şub

- ABNB gave hopium of investing in different business for next 5 years which could grow into a billion dollars.

- Investors should not fall for hopium. Execution remains a challenge and money spent on that bet remains unseen and just a wild dream as of now.

- EPS growth of ABNB is almost flat for next 2-3 years.

- Hotel industry has caught up to $ABNB. There's no USP ( unique selling point ) of $ABNB. Verbo offers exactly the same thing which ABNB does.

- Tons of listing have cannibalized net revenue for the host.

- Short term rentals have caused havoc in the rental market for the long term tenants.

Fundamentals wise:

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 4.37 | 5.05 | 5.99 | 7.37
EPS growth % | 9.89% | 15.65% | 18.68% | 22.94%

For a company growing eps mid to high teens deserves a fair forward multiple of 20.

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price w p/e 20 | $87 | $101 | $119 | $147

However, many investors would be okay paying 25 times for a company with strong brand so.

Stock price w p/e 25 | $109 | $126 | $149 | $184

Bull Case:
Stock price w p/e 30 | $131 | $151 | $179 | $221

Recommendation:
Staying on the sidelines and waiting for the stock to disappoint and buy it close to instrinsic value represented by fundamentals

11 Mar

Not

ABNB faded all the gains post earnings. Blame it broader market sell off or earnings not good enough for investors to stick to their positions long term.

17 Nis

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

🎯 ABNB well into the range I shared!

I recommended my followers to fade the RIP