ABSA - Bounce or Break?

ABG has been trading in an upward parallel channel since July. It has reached the bottom of the channel with quite strong bearish momentum. If it continues downwards through the bottom of the channel and makes a lower low, I will consider entering short. Conversely, it could bounce off of the bottom of the channel and head upwards as it has done a few times recently. I will consider a long position if it fails to break through the bottom of the channel.