Tencent (700): Ambitious Targets - Preparing for a Breakout

3 May

For Tencent Holdings Ltd. on the Hong Kong Exchange, we're seeing a scenario where the subordinate Wave (2) has likely concluded between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels around 260 HKD. We anticipate a breakout from this range heading upwards, ideally reaching the target zone for Wave (3) between 227% and 361.8% Fibonacci extensions, which translates to approximately 870 HKD to 1100 HKD. Though this target is quite ambitious, it remains plausible in the long-term scenario for Tencent.

On the 4-hour chart for Tencent Holdings, we are observing a subordinate Wave 1 structure, which should be formed as a 5-wave structure heading upwards. The wave ((iii)) in this sequence has likely concluded at the high-volume node edge, fitting neatly between the 227.2% and 261.8% extension levels for Wave ((iii)).



For the anticipated Wave ((iv)), we expect a more pronounced sell-off to between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, reaching down to our point of control, indicating significant buying interest at these levels. We'll place our stop-loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and beneath the maximum level where Wave ((iv)) can feasibly fall without invalidating our scenario. A brief dip into the level of Wave ((i)) is tolerable, but a prolonged stay would challenge the validity of our setup.

We've also respected the trendline well, attempting a retest that should hold if valid, hence not anticipating a further drop. Our upward target is initially set at 416 HKD, beyond which we will look for new entries for a superior Wave 2 and continue to adjust our stop-loss from Wave ((iv)) accordingly.