$Tencent Observation: Flat bottom triangle? $JSENPN $JSEPRX

23 Eki 2019

Tencent in Hong Kong looks to be developing a flat bottom triangle pattern - otherwise known as a descending triangle. My only concern from a technical perspective is that these patterns are normally continuation patterns which develop in the direction of the preceding trend. However, there are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend. Watch for a convincing daily close below the horizontal support line between (318-320). More importantly, a high volume break would provide better confirmation that this is indeed a true breakdown and will also provide a better probability that this pattern plays out. Should this technical pattern work out on a confirmed break below 318, it has a technical target of 243 HK$ which is roughly 24% away from current levels. The repercussions of this playing out has far-reaching consequences for our market given the elevated weightings which Naspers and Prosus occupy on our local indices.

What is also interesting to take note of is that the last time we saw the death cross (50dma < 200dma) in Jun/Jul 18' on Tencent, we witnessed the stock have an aggressive sell off from R400 down to R250. This death cross has once again taken place in September..