DDCA Composite Risk Metric v2

A single 0–1 risk oscillator for Dynamic Dollar-Cost Averaging into Bitcoin. Combines 19 cross-domain indicators into one actionable signal — low readings mean opportunity, high readings mean risk.

What It Does
Instead of watching dozens of charts and trying to "feel" the market, this indicator distills macro conditions, on-chain data, technical structure, and sentiment into a single number between 0 and 1. That number maps directly to how aggressively you should be buying or selling.

0.0 = maximum opportunity → 1.0 = maximum risk

The indicator plots as a color-gradient line with 7 labeled action bands, a real-time score table, and an optional execution multiplier for position sizing.

The 19 Indicators
Organized into 4 weighted tiers:

TIER 1 — MACRO & LIQUIDITY (25%)
Answers: Is the environment cheap?

• ① FED Rate Direction — monetary policy stance
  
• ② Global M2 YoY — liquidity expansion/contraction
  
• ③ FED Balance Sheet — net liquidity proxy
  
• ④ US Real Yields — opportunity cost of risk assets
  
• ⑤ Unemployment Trend — economic stress signal
  
• ⑥ DXY Dollar Index — USD strength headwind/tailwind
  

TIER 2 — ON-CHAIN (35%)
Answers: Is there capitulation NOW?

• ⑦ MVRV Z-Score — market value vs realized value
  
• ⑧ NUPL — net unrealized profit/loss
  
• ⑨ Puell Multiple — miner revenue stress
  
• ⑩ LTH Behavior Proxy — price vs 365 SMA
  
• ⑪ Hash Ribbons — miner capitulation signal
  

TIER 3 — TECHNICAL (30%)
Answers: Is price at a structural bottom/top?

• ⑫ 200-Week MA Ratio — long-term mean reversion
  
• ⑬ Bull Market Support Band — trend health
  
• ⑭ Pi Cycle Top — cycle peak detection
  
• ⑮ BTC Dominance — capital rotation signal
  
• ⑯ Log Regression Band — position within long-term channel
  
• ⑰ Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) — dry powder on sidelines
  

TIER 4 — SENTIMENT (10%)
Answers: Is the crowd panicking or euphoric?
⑱ Fear & Greed Proxy — volatility + momentum composite
⑲ Altcoin Breadth — speculative froth measurement

Each indicator uses adaptive normalization (percentile rank + rate-of-change blending) to stay calibrated across market regimes. A sigmoid rescale compresses extremes while keeping the middle responsive.

Action Bands
The composite maps to 7 symmetric zones centered on 0.50:

• 🟢 < 0.25 — ALL-IN → Maximum deployment, historically rare
  
• 🟢 0.25–0.35 — STRONG BUY → Aggressive accumulation
  
• 🟢 0.35–0.45 — BUY → Favorable conditions, steady buying
  
• 🟡 0.45–0.55 — HOLD → Neutral, do nothing
  
• 🔴 0.55–0.65 — SELL → Begin distribution
  
• 🔴 0.65–0.75 — STRONG SELL → Accelerated profit-taking
  
• 🔴 > 0.75 — ALL-OUT → Maximum risk, aggressive selling
  

Execution Layer (Optional)
Toggle "Show Execution Multiplier" in settings to overlay a position-sizing curve. The multiplier tells you how much to scale your base weekly allocation:

Buy side: Continuous curve from the HOLD boundary (0.45) down to the clamp point (0.15), where multiplier = 5×. At the buy pivot (0.35), multiplier = exactly 1.0×.

Sell side: Mirror curve from the HOLD boundary (0.55) up to the clamp point (0.85), where multiplier = 5×. At the sell pivot (0.60), multiplier = exactly 1.0×.

HOLD zone (0.45–0.55): Multiplier = 0. No action.

All parameters (ceiling, pivot, power, clamp) are fully configurable. The curve shape uses derived power exponents so that the maximum multiplier (5×) lands precisely at the clamp boundaries without any artificial cap.

How To Use
Weekly workflow:

1. Check the composite reading every Monday (buy day) and Wednesday (sell day)
   
2. Read the band label — it tells you what to do
   
3. If using the execution layer, multiply your base allocation by the multiplier
   
4. Enter your position
   

Customization:
Toggle individual tiers ON/OFF to see the composite with or without macro - Adjust individual indicator weights (must sum to 100) - Enable sub-score plots for debugging tier-level behavior - All execution layer parameters are editable in the settings panel

Design Philosophy
This indicator is built for portfolio management, not trading. It pushes you toward action rather than inaction — the narrow HOLD zone (only 10% of the range) means you're almost always either accumulating or distributing. The 7-band system is symmetric by design, and the continuous multiplier curve eliminates artificial cliff edges between zones.

The macro tier compresses the composite's range (typical operating band: 0.15–0.85 with macro enabled vs 0.05–0.95 without). This is intentional — macro conditions act as a stabilizer that prevents overreaction to short-term on-chain or technical signals.

Data Sources
Uses 22 request.security() calls pulling from FRED (macro), QUANDL/BLOCKCHAIN (on-chain), and standard BTC price data (technical + sentiment). All on-chain proxies are constructed from publicly available TradingView data — no external API required.

Not financial advice. This is a systematic framework for informed decision-making, not a guarantee of returns. Always do your own research.