Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: Breakout Confirmed, What’s Next?

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XAUUSD concluded a week by breaking above the key levels and reclaiming the $4,200, signaling a continuation of bullish momentum after a period of compression. This breakout from the consolidation pattern suggests that buyers have regained control and are pushing price toward the November high. The 4H chart shows a clear higher low formation, which is a classic sign of underlying strength in an uptrend. However, this victory is not yet complete; it is now entering a critical phase where it must prove its strength by holding above the broken levels and overcoming the formidable resistance area above.

GOLD has broken out of a triangle pattern, which is trend continuation pattern. Historically, such patterns lead to a measured move upward, targeting the height of the triangle’s base added to the breakout point. While this offers a bullish target near $4,330, a potential pullback from point C might occur before the final leg higher. This pullback scenario is common and should be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reversal signal. The monthly chart confirms the broader bullish bias, with price trading well above the monthly low and approaching the October high, a key psychological and technical hurdle that will require strong conviction to overcome.

Looking ahead, the path forward is not guaranteed. The immediate support is now around $4,160, which must hold firm to validate the breakout. A failure to hold this level could lead to a retest of the $4,100 range, potentially triggering a deeper correction. Additionally, next week’s high-impact economic data such Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE, and Unemployment Claims—will be pivotal. Strong US data could pressure gold by strengthening the dollar, while weaker-than-expected numbers could fuel the rally. For now, the bias is bullish, but caution is warranted as the market approaches next major test.

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GOLD pushed higher at the start of the week, reclaiming momentum and retesting the November high, which now acts as a key resistance within the broader bullish structure. Price is currently sitting on the upward trendline, showing healthy compression—typically a bullish continuation signal when aligned with higher lows. The overall structure remains constructive, with each pullback finding support at progressively higher levels.

If buyers defend the 4,200–4,225 area, GOLD may attempt another extension toward the 4,330 resistance, where the upper channel and major supply zone intersect. A breakout above that region could trigger a sharper upside continuation.

➡️ Primary scenario: trendline support holds → continuation toward 4,330.
⚠️ Risk scenario: a drop below trendline exposes deeper retracement toward 4,100 support.