FX_IDC:XAUUSD için Binary_Forecasting_Service tarafından 4800 DRAFT 8-3, SHOULD NEXT STEP STILL BE 2275?

4800 DRAFT 8-3, SHOULD NEXT STEP STILL BE 2275?

Introduction - Didn't your mother ever tell you not to play with your food? Bulls with upper hand near 2400s once again trapped by hubris. Believing themselves invincible post Powell speech allowing bears to hang around with the door to 2275 still wide open. Will they regret this indecisive decision? Only time and Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine will tell.

Details - This is the followup to 8-1 and 8-2, both tracking the route to 2275. This route is almost eliminated. But you know what they say about almost? Only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. In the game of trading and investing - considered by many to be the greatest game in the world - almost definitely does not matter.

Not

Warning - This morning's price action made me realize I needed to put this back in for the noobs, especially when I am not in front of a screen all the time. So the market, in my humbled opinion, acts like a girl you are dating that is 2 marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is trap few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else in your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.25% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, trade defensively EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make.

Not

4:53 PM ET, 2381.xx and giving back gains before and after Powell speech. First from 8-1 and first chart I posted when I woke up this morning :

Not

a) prior to the spike to 2392, my 3 adjusted outcomes for that route were:

Not

b) I saw the move started but couldn't comment from the highway, for reference next time, be aware of what the limits of that pattern is:

Not

c) that way you don't get stabbed in the back

Not

d) going into Powell speech the two routes were:

e) in chart above, price checked support then "feigned going bull route"
f) then pulled back into bear route
g) is it true that good looking men always cheat?
h) I don't know because I'm not good looking enough, but if I was, it just might cross my mind

Not

i) in chart above, the bold black line is what I said bulls needed to break to be done with it
j) but red line here is lack of conviction on bulls part
k) I started writing this post at 2389, and published at 2387, and now it's under original "pattern limit" line
l) and to compare all of the above with the current route in chart at top:

Not

5:25 PM ET, TUES AFTERNOON WRAP UP AND NEW FLOOR?

a) in chart above SAME LINES since Sunday night
b) except a new dashed line to show the limit of the down move
c) which in most bearish conditions is going to have a hard time breaking 2293
d) in which case, to be realistic with our expectations ...
e) we have raise the target to 2303
f) doesn't mean we can't get to 2275, but be realistic here
g) there will be a bigger correction window later
h) as intermediate base case is now 2303-2525 before coming back to 2222 before 6/12 FOMC
i) remember, we do not pick any hill to die on, we go where price takes us

Not

a) in chart above
b) if you want to get 43 year trend line right
c) use IDC/ICE TICKER on 1 day bar (no exception!)
d) you'll find it at 2363-ish right now

Not

8:17 Tinashia asked about candlestick saying reversal, which is true FROM HER TIMEZONE.
a) it's like taking a section of a flowing river
b) all you get is that section
c) with trend maps you define EVERY SECTION from 10 ratios (so basically 10 bar sizes)
d) so then:

Not

a) so in chart above, when I talk about "setups", that's what I mean
b) when "trends line up" for a big one way move
c) if they DO NOT LINE UP you get ZIG THEN ZAG, sideways, or staircases
d) or annoying markets NOT WORTH YOUR TIME

Not

9:47 PM ET 2382.XX, so earlier when I said, "bears are favored", and they need to act like it...
a) that's what I mean
b) trends are about to reach "completion" for them
c) if they don't move when they are "favored to"
d) that's a PROBLEM!
e) and then someone shows up talk smack as if all I do is draw squiggles
f) on a kid's lcd sketchpad
g) yeah... ANNOYING AF!
h) so it's 9:53 and 2384.xx AND WE HAVE A PROBLEM

Not

i) it's not going down
j) so let's see where it's going next

Not

10:19 PM, so you just basically saw how my updating process work
a) and how I recognize when something is not working
b) by setting a dead line for it work
c) if it doesn't, the trend maps has shifted to something else
d) hence, it's a constant updating process

Not

10:26 PM ET 2384.XX and WRAP UP FOR THIS POST
a) so it's handicap situation
b) the move HAS NOT happened yet
c) after looking through various maps, blue route above is NOW favorite outright
d) but be aware that bear route is not yet eliminated
e) maybe an hour from elimination
f) and yes, I've seen things turn before in the last hour
g) so that line there in chart above is your 2-way stop
h) that's it for tonight, I'm cleaning up and lights out early

Not

10:47 PM ET 2383.xx, too much shifting right now
a) so bulls route which was I thought was approaching 2:1
b) is still 3:2 or less
c) so but it's not like if bears make the move now, it's the same move
d) because of decreasing vol and increasing odds for sideways
e) so my instincts say whatever you get after this break of the small triangle
f) MIGHT NOT BE THAT INTERESTING
g) good night

Not

10:57 PM, 2383.XX I'm shutting down but bears are still live
a) this is like down to the wire
b) if bears gonna do this
c) they don't have a lot of time left
d) but be aware, they still alive here

Not

1:20 AM ET, just woke up ... and going back to bed
a) so I wrote at 10:47 ... a few lines above ....
>>>> e) so my instincts say whatever you get after this break of the small triangle
>>>> f) MIGHT NOT BE THAT INTERESTING
b) so it was 83.xx, now its 80.xx
c) see you in the morning
d) and no I didn't even bother checking trend maps

Not

e) and yes bear route is still live
f) but I don't know what it should look like
g) I can't say it's going to be exciting ... bc it didn't "hold its curves"
h) but it's also not dead
i) too sleepy to do any serious thinking
j) bye

Not

k) just go line by line
l) now it broke red line... about damn time
m) so watch blue line and gray line..
n) same lines since Sunday night
o) bye again

Not

p) about to shut down again...
q) as a rule.. late moves like to reverse
r) so trail your stops to keep profits if you've been shorting this move down
s) I don't know if it will keep moving down hard
t) but as a rule, usually not
u) as I type these notes from p) to u) it just bounced 3 pts already
w) so I'm lights out
x) I'll try add notes first thing in the morning

Not

y) if I have to call it here base ON VERY RAW numbers, I think IT WILL FOLLOW THROUGH WITH BEAR PATH
z) BUT USE CAUTION AT 2363-2365 because the 43 year trend line HAS HELD LAST 2 CHECKS, that's a wrap

Not

2:19 AM, 2372.xx, WOKE UP TO ALARM SCREAMING FOR 2340
a) a signal that 2340 is coming up
b) that's all I know right now
c) I'll look at this and post some notes

Not

d) first, coming up means next 8-10 hours

Not

e) this means basically on time for chart at top
f) and implies 2303 will get hit after that as well

Not

g) no.. it does NOT MEAN that
h) it implies 2320 should get hit afterwards
i) but that's not really that obvious so let's just work on 2340 first

Not

j) what it is saying is this:
1) spiraling momentum will bring us to 2366, 2353, and 2344
2) so the tolerance would put the move at basically 2340 in 8-10 hours out
3) but this move must be traded with "curved down stop" like this:

Not

9:48 AM, I'm working on a new draft but for reference let me point somethings out so you can be more protected.
a) first, I realized a long time ago that forecasting is weakest when I have to sleep
b) bc of "the sudden change" I that I can't respond to
c) so that's why I put the warning back in at top that if price moves .25% opposite the direction of the continuous forecast...
d) you should exit first and ask questions later
e) meanwhile the signal last night literally came on AS SUPPORT CAME IN
f) hence I said if "it starts going SIDEWAYS, that's a deal breaker"
g) in this case, I should've been EVEN MORE CLEAR, with chart above when I posted it at 2377.xx
h) that if it moved above 2380-81, that should also obvious deal breaker
i) that's what I meant by price MUST HOLD THIS CURVED SHAPE
j) because as I wrote a while above that
k) price needed to get to 2363-2365 while al the trends still agreed
l) so there's that while I work on a new draft
m) obviously with the move to "regain red line position" 2275 thesis is dead
n) and we aim for 2440 which is now more like 2450-2460 again.
o) the question is of course how we get there

Not

THIS POST IS FINISHED - HERE IS 9-1 & 2444:

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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