The pair is well over extended and well, many disagreements on my posts. That is fine, as in the end of the day we are all responsible for our positions.
For now, no change in long-term view, and including weekly chart view, that the pair is heavily overbought, and yes inflation is very high, and one should consider the pair as a managed float, does not mean the market condition can continuously drive it upwards. For now SELL current (or add) @ 16.60-16.75 and will update when again. The profit order for medium-term 13.75 for now. The long-term 10.50-9.7500 for now.
Still shorthing this pair or not? Could you please update?
peterbokma
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@abdullah77simsek, still short, yes...will update later in the day... but think no changes as we did not correct really... tc
MinimumWagerLvl1
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@peterbokma, thanks. Looks like government wants cheaper country for the tourism. Correction may take till September... Waiting for your update
gulbukene
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You should not short this pair until there is new government in power. There is minimal trust in the economic outlook in Turkey. Government intervening with the central bank. President keeps stating they will keep lowering interest rates while FED increases their interest rates. Foreign investors are leaving the country. Cheap TRY is being sold to acquire USD to investors from Qatar and Kuwait. Central bank reserves of currency is dwindling. This pair cannot be based on technical analysis. It is not a healthy economy. This pair is dangerous for anyone who is trying to trade.
MinimumWagerLvl1
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I also support shorting this USDTRY pair. But I am afraid on Yesterday's talk Erdogan said they will keep declining the political interest. That means they want this pair to reach at least 20. I believe without changing economical politics overbuy means nothing for this pair. We may have a correction back to 15 levels for me that means load the bag and ride it up to 20...
Alzxx
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can you also do Usd/Ars (argentinian Peso), based on your rsi technique can we see a 100% correction on this pair? its probably over extended too, if that happens the new price will be 60 . After that probably you will be the president of Argentina :)
peterbokma
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@Alzxx, you are quite insulting. anyway, you do not see the difference of course. Inflation, yes similar type, exchange rate is managed float plus heavily black market, and further GDP is - 9.9 %.... whilst Turkey is 1.8% positive... Argentia has a long history of issues and problems... therefore one way street and direction..not a tradable currency... so if Turkey decides managed float and growth goes out of the door... sure.. long time we will see weakness... for now.. it is not similar by any means...silly comparison really.. If I would become President.. need to speak Spanish..am afraid that will not work... lol
Alzxx
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check both charts, they are similar and is heading towards the same direction. real inflation in istanbul is way too higher and the central bank has already burnt reserves to keep the lira stable and that is backfiring. The reserves are currently running negative, the implications are yet to be incorporated into the exchange rate. This market will stay overbought and corrections are dips, many brokers have already stopped providing USD/TRY trading pair because they are not able to trade against this pair. thank you