SEK is expected to weaken in this pair, where an Elliott Wave carved out an outline of its Contracting Triangle through a series of 3-3-3 internal formations with more (leading triangle) or less (simple zig-zag) complexities.
This analysis replaces a recent one, as the Geo lost its geometric validation - However, the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force with a resilient bullish target defined as:
- TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015
ALTERNATE PATTERN - BARRIER TRIANGLE ... BUT NO MORE:
Although price is currently perched at the top of a motive wave - which may or may not necessarily mark the debut of the expected ascent - an adverse excursion should be tolerable all the way down to the 8.03040 line - Crossing of the orange square would offer a fair advance warning.
Indeed, attainment of this 8.03040 nadir would convert the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle to a related Barrier Triangle, wherein its Intermediate points (B) and (D) would come to alignment.
INVALIDATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE TRIANGLES:
If and once price breaks below the aforementioned 8.03040 interdiction level, current analysis become null and void. However, the market geometrist would have to consider the possible nascence of a Wolfe Wave or Geo.
OVERALL:
An Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle has carved its geometric outline out of Intermediate waves (A), (B), (C) and (D), giving shape to its requisite convergence of A-C and B-D lines with zig-zag internals up to this point.
A forecast outline of the expected Intermediate wave (E) is drawn, using slopes of preceding dominant waves, and levels that have been defined as relevant to the Predictive/Forecasting Model.
Although Intermediate wave (E) is expected to pass beyond the A-C line, it is defined at the level corresponding to the Predictive/Forecasting Model which had valued the top at 8.91090 on 01 OCT 2015. However, this would not distort the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, but simply offer a common "overshoot", which is a distinct signature in this particular geometry.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
Following is a cut/paste content of the technical comments made in the discussion thread. Instead, I am moving all of these technical comments and chart updates to this "Update Status", so as to keep the chronology clear and uncluttered:
================= 19 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price jumps from consolidation base as forecast; Remains close to wave-A development of minor A-B-C formation of Intermediate (E):
The background geometry remains that of an Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle, whereas foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on its bullish target at 8.9109 from 01 OCT 2015.
David Alcindor =================
Yorum
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22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price moved on up right off as forecast; Now nears the 8.45858 defined as a probable R/S level of retracement (not reversal) significant:
David Alcindor
Yorum
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29 OCT 2915 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Finer grain H4 timeframe suggest probable interim retracement (not reversal) with downside probability as shown:
David Alcindor
Yorum
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29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update - Addendum:
Looking at the overall field, retracement mentioned in H4 would simply take price back vicinity of prior R/S level, or at time of forecast:
David Alcindor
Yorum
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26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
A break above upper border of the geometry calls into probability of a loftier target, TG-Hix = 8.98989 - 26 NOV 2015 (Among qualitative targets, TG-Hix are of lesser probability than TG-Hi ... Think of it as an elastic straining to recoil back towards the core of the geometry):
Overall, price continues to rally as per original forecast.
David Alcindor
Yorum
⋅
07 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:
Look for this potential internal ab = cd geometric development as forecast remains intact:
Price continues to climb; Elliott Wave's Alternations Rule is liekly to call for a protracted, convoluted correction in current Primary wave-4-circled - Note how this primary degree sought and found support at the 4th wave termination level of one lesser degree in the vicinity of Intermediate wave-(4) .
Since I started the analysis drawing correlations with the GBPSEK, here is an update on the GBP vs. SEK:
As noted before, the overall move is a bullish impulse with current development of a Cycle wave-IV, starting at the Intermediate wave-5 circled of Cycle Wave III. Now that we are dealing with a probable correction, one should pay particular attention to the preceding Cycle Wave-II constitution. Close scrutiny at a lesser timeframe will reveal that Cycle Wave-II is made of an internal 3-3-5, which represents a Flat. Hence, based on Ellitt Wave's Rule Of Alternations, I would expect that the current Cycle Wave-IV development will borrow from a more complex geometry, such as an Elliott Wave Zig-Zag ("ZZ"), with internals of 5-3-5.
Therefore, Intermediate Wave-4 circled could represent a temporary nadir IF and only if the developing ZZ took the form of its Expanded variation, where internal Wave-A termination level would be exceeded by Wave-C - Beware.
Best,
David Alcindor
alr14uk
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Hi David, great analysis... Do you have a view on GBPSEK? Can you see a resumption of the weekly uptrend?
4xForecaster
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Hello @alr14uk - Yes, I can definitely post a correlated chart here - Let me run a few numbers and see how it'd compare - Thank you.
I am not certain as to the proportional move of GPSEK versus that of the chart of interest in this thread (USDSEK), but I can say with some confidence that the WEEKLY trend in which you are interested is likely to resume based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model. Note that the "Model" is good a pointing to a high-probability target, but not good at defining a high-probability set-up. In other words, the Predictive/Forecasting Model will point where but won't tell when.
For this reason, I have develop simple market-based geometries that offer a visual clue - The most relevant and precise so far has been the "Geo", although I just released to this community the ATHENA, which provides tighter measures of anticipation in terms of price action, stop-losses, ... etc.
Here, let's look at the bare chart ... I have chosen the widest timeframe available: Monthly.
The chart shows an overall bearish tendency with a recent reactive rally that has carried itself to over half of that historical decline. Not bad.
Your question pertains to whether bulls have what it takes to take price any higher. My quick answer is: Yes. The long answer follows:
Following chart shows:
1 - A 5-wave decline into Cycle waves I, II, III, IV and V
2 - Rule of Alternations delivers a complex corrective wave II (it appears to fit the Wolfe Wave, as the first internal wave resembles too much a motive wave to qualify it for an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle - Perhaps other more versed in Elliott Wave could share an opinion here). In contrast and compliance with that Alternations Rule, a much simpler Wave IV occurred.
3 - Next, a final motive wave in Cycle wave V terminates the entire multi-year bearish impulse. As a side-note, you might appreciate the fact that the entire ensuing Cycle wave V has the exact anatomical feature as the entire bearish impulse ... Just noticing this interesting geometric correspondence. Not a big deal for the analysis.
What comes next is a rallying to over half of the 5-year decline, and this into a sustained narrowly channeled price action. I would expect this to correspond to a Leading Diagonal, leading on up to Cycle wave a - Most interesting is that the counter-trend reaction took the shape of a motive wave. So, expect a possible 5-3-5 formation from a zig-zag. If this where the case, the issue with ZZ is that the nadir they carve out from the first 5-wave formation is likely to define an even lower low prior to a rallying. A simple ZZ might gift you the simplicity of a reciprocal ab = cd geometry, in which case you'd be able to define what that lower-low will be.
But first, let's not assume necessarily that this most recent motive wave is all that there is to the chart - Best is to let it reveal its identity and then trade it at the break of a safe level.
Looking at things through the prisms of harmonics remains a safe approach to trading on a pure technical basis. So, throwing a Fib extension from the current price action, here is what we get relative to the Predictive/Forecasting Model:
Not a bad approximation, but not one to assure us that the low reached recently is the lowest low it could reach. So, beware.
Now, assuming that the Predictive/Forecasting Model is right, here is another application of the Fibonacci number I like as a "second-best" after the 1.414:
Now, do you see where I am going with that one? I am simply looking at the potential retracement from a classic pattern discovered by Scott Carney (harmonictrading.com/): The Shark ...
Note that TradingView does not have the right points for this pattern, as the SHARK is the only pattern which starts at zero, unlike every other known charts which start at point-x. This is extremely important to remember because the Shark is not a stand-alone pattern. It is the "gate-keeper" to the 5-0 pattern. This means that once the Shark completes, it will most certainly retrace a full fifty percent ... Hence its acolyte pattern named appropriately as the five-O, or 5-0 pattern, in reference to the amount of percentage from which it owes its existence.
The resultant price move should look like what is described in the following chart:
In my experience, the level highlighted (which is truly called Point-A in the normal positioning of the Zero-X-A-B-C plots of the Shark) represents a common level of attainment which price is likely to use as its ultimate support.
OVERALL:
Yes, it should climb, but the interim steps could occur in too many geometric combinations for now. Best is to sit and watch through your mind's eyes. With a beer. Or two.
Best,
David Alcindor
========================
"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"
Sherlock Holmes Quote
-The Sign of Four
======================
"I never guess. It is a shocking habit — destructive to the logical faculty"
Sherlock Holmes Quote
-The Sign of Four
===================
"In solving a problem of this sort, the grand thing is to be able to reason backwards. That is a very useful accomplishment, and a very easy one, but people do not practise it much. In the every-day affairs of life it is more useful to reason forwards, and so the other comes to be neglected. There are fifty who can reason synthetically for one who can reason analytically...Let me see if I can make it clearer. Most people, if you describe a train of events to them, will tell you what the result would be. They can put those events together in their minds, and argue from them that something will come to pass. There are few people, however, who, if you told them a result, would be able to evolve from their own inner consciousness what the steps were which led up to that result. This power is what I mean when I talk of reasoning backwards, or analytically."
Sherlock Holmes Quote
-A Study in Scarlet
-Chapter 7 - Conclusion
==========================
David Alcindor
iefan
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USDSEK
29 Oct 2015
Hi David, just need your assistance in determining the most likely path of price. Is it probable that we will have a decline before rallying to TG-Hi at 8.9109? Thank you. iefan
4xForecaster
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Hello @iefan - I went long and got out at the level I had signaled as a probable reversal, ... Using the DAILY chart (see the big ugly pink down-arrow):
Now, the question is whether price will follow the pathway I had anticipated. Here is what and where I expect an interim decline should rest:
1 - First, I often use the value of prior Target-Hit levels, as these targets tend to define future R/S levels whenever price moves into a new territory, or in this case, these targets will tend to fall in line with prior R/S levels, whenever price returns or remains within a prior territory - See arrow and its alignment with prior target at 8.3015:
2 - Second, I would look for Fibonacci values. There is a set of values I used to teach pertaining to a strategy called the "House Keeping". I won't reveal that pattern, but here are important pearls:
a - The deeper the reversal, the less aggressive the the ensuing counter-trend. I used to think that a rally that retraced to 0.618 would recoiled back into a recommenced rally. Not so, despite our "mechanical" expectation of an elastic effect. In fact, the converse is most often true (this is all empirical, so no collection of data, but pure trading experience since 1997): Price rallying from 0.386-Fib implies a much more aggressive forward-moving market than one that recoils to 0.500 or 0.618.
b - Enter at 0.500. Period.
That's the clue about "House Keeping" - I might return to teaching at some point, and this is one that represents an important "early positioning" strategy - Additionally, a 0.500-Fib positioning will allow less exposure if the market remains languorous).
c - Always be sure to look at the 4-fold timeframe above your time of interest. If looking at a 4-hour chart, look for the mechanism that will cause failure of the 4-Hour at the DAILY level ... Life happens when you make plans, you know.
Now, taking a look at the H4 levels after clearing the DAILY level, here is where the GEOMETRY is likely to do on current price:
1 - First, we have this contracting geometry, right?
2 - Second, we will notice that Line interplays I have defined in the ATHENA method (ATHENA Room: tradingview.com/chat/ ) will tend to impart a similar interplay in the contracting geometries - Not as often, but see if you can appreciate the following frames:
a -- See where price reversed from ... :
b -- So, by reciprocity that you'd find in the ATHENA, one may expect a similar imposition of the contra-lateral side:
OVERALL:
Yes, I do expect that, based on the DAILY landscape and 4-Hour geometry, there is a probable time-consumptive retracement (not reversal) that is likely to occur - Again, as in any aspect of life, all we are talking is probability.
Best,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
19 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price jumps from consolidation base as forecast; Remains close to wave-A development of minor A-B-C formation of Intermediate (E):
The background geometry remains that of an Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle, whereas foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on its bullish target at 8.9109 from 01 OCT 2015.
David Alcindor
iefan
⋅
Hi David
Please excuse the 5 minute chart, but after you released Athena I was searching all my charts for the geometry. I have been away for a few days and just opened my 5 min chart on which I had constructed my first Athena just before leaving last week. I was astounded by what I encountered! Just wanted to share how remarkable this pattern is and how even now it is still having an influence on price. Thank you again for sharing this new geometry! Best iefan
4xForecaster
⋅
Hello @iefan - Yes, this is one of the mosaic pattern (including the Geo) that continues to have a lasting effect on price. What is not apparent - but becomes so if you leave the lines extended - is the interlacing of lines, projected off of a "seed" geometry, just as lignin (the protein that constitutes bark in trees) lays down a "scent line", or pathway along which the tree takes its shape, so would these lines, affecting the future development of price.
Thank you for following these geometries so closely. I thought you might enjoy them as the next level-up of complexity (starting with Momental lines, then Geo, and now the ATHENA).
Price continues to climb; Elliott Wave's Alternations Rule is liekly to call for a protracted, convoluted correction in current Primary wave-4-circled - Note how this primary degree sought and found support at the 4th wave termination level of one lesser degree in the vicinity of Intermediate wave-(4) .
David Alcindor