USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

14 Eki 2023

Past week witnessed repeat of the same narrow range by taking 83.20 as pivot moved 0.10 on either side. As the base gradually shifting higher above 83, the market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.75. Expect the range of 82.90-83.30 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:
As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.

• The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 83.00-83.30
  
• On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70
  
• Incidentally, the big move from 80 to 83 happened during third week of Sep 22 to first week of Oct 23. Are we in to another such move?
  
• On an analysis of conflicts leading to change in perception of Geo-political risks there may be a scenario to “Let-Go”. The big move in INR from 75.28 to 82.80 happened 3-4 weeks after the start of Russia-Ukraine war. However, there was a deceptive down move prior to the full blown up-move. So, it’s a wait and watch?
  
• We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are in the ninth month. Will 2023 is be another 2017 or as usual? Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.20 can help chances of lower levels.
  

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.