Excuse the purple background. That's the big bear crab I have on the DAILY TF showing. Again, tech guys, the visibility options are not working on posts!
In a previous post on this pair (see Related Ideas section to find it), I had completely called the price action correctly.....except I didn't! I goofed in trying to call for a retracement waaaayyy too early and suffered for it ass prices just blew right through my SHORT trade! Well, that's why I use stops!
So here we are, prices are still lingering within a MAJOR structural zone dating back to 7 years ago. And (on the DAILY TF) prices are oversold on the RSI and begging for relief! So do we now say a top is in and call for a SELL?
In a word: NO! Not just yet. Another push up and then...maybe. The mistake I made in my last post was underestimating the overall strength of this trend. And boy! Is it strong! In order to be able to push through this MAJOR SR Structure, it has to be. Also, as always, keeping in mind the bigger picture in which I called for a HUGE MOVE up still to come in this pair, I should've known that there was more upside to come and not to be so fast in calling for a retrace. Also in the previous post, remember this baby I posted?
Yep, another crab and it's looking more and more like prices are headed that way! And it's still a long ways to go to get to that D point! I'll get more into detail about that crab in a separate posting. For now, let's concentrate on the here and now and this pennant pattern.
The main chart pretty much says it all in what many signs point to another push up. But this time, it will have to push right past the last MAJOR SR structure high to get there. Will it? Odds are yes. It will. But the question is: what will happen after it does (if it does?)? We'll just have to wait and see.
For now, I am going to play this pennant LONG and see what happens. As you can see on the chart, my LONG trade idea is pretty low risk and it' would be a trend trade so there's more confidence to it. Incidentally, in another post on AUDUSD, I am also calling for another push lower. Since this pair and AUDUSD have very high correlation (+97%), it only makes more sense to see another push up here.
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It will be Interesting to see if it can break above close above the major level. Myself i had limit just under just under 13052 which was triggered and also seeing some divergence on the 1h, hoping for an inside return back down to 1.2950.
Thanks for the interesting post and Good luck!
EverythingForex
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And if it does break above, close above....what then? I agree with you that I'd like to see it break above and then quickly come back down to then possibly leave some kind of bearish price action to examine. But if it doesn't...then I will look for the trend to continue on up.
UnknownUnicorn107271
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Absolutely, if a break above close above does happen well yes the 1.618 could be the NSH point, time will tell.
Thanks for the interesting post and Good luck!