Biden travel restrictions are likely to run this company into the ground. The writing is on the wall, with the airline advertising European destinations at heavy discounts. All these routes will be lost. Travelers have had enough of the harassment at the airports and have canceled their trips. Any and all pullbacks should be short-sell this winter.
Hahahha Wake up dude! Government generally will not let airlines go bankrupt, they are nationalized and literally every single person I know is traveling. TSA numbers are at 90% of 2019. We have learned to live with the virus, this won’t be the last strain and life will go on! I’ve added to my positions and even increased my cost basis. When the next headline of the vaccine makes come out saying they have a strain specific booster, this and other will rip like they did today.
kremser
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@ktaba, depends heavily on which government we are talking about as to the bailouts. the restaurant industry has already been left to the wayside and there will be heavy bankruptcies over the winter... this particular airline hasn't advertised a discount fare in 2 years and now suddenly european routes are being slashed. current tsa numbers mean nothing with regard to the new international travel restrictions and travelers on these routes have had their fair share of the nonsense. not sure about your friends (sounds domestic), pretty much all these flights back and forth across the atlantic will be canceled, as the flights are already half-empty as it is. good luck with your long position, yes, i could very well be wrong.
ktaba
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@kremser as we are talking about UAL, an American company, we are talking about the US Govt obviously lol. The restaurant industry is irrelevant also. You don’t need to discount, if you have big demand. UAL is flying 91% of 2019 domestic flights. Also, airlines divert plans to different routes as needed, if international declines due to the new variant. Fuel prices are coming down and they are already hedges, did I mention pricing power? Lol Also, Biden said currently there will be no quarantine restrictions, and people can still fly in/out. People have been stuck at home for two years, and they will put up with the nonsense to travel. Traveling had nonsense even before Covid and people deal with it. You must not travel much, because every flight is full go look it up! I just came back from Europe and I know many others traveling internationally. Again, there is too much negativity priced in and the stock is reflecting that. But once (hopefully) we find out that this new variant is not as deadly and booster doe if vaccines are available, this as well as the rest of the travel sector will rip like it did today. Good luck mate!
kremser
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@ktaba, fuel prices coming down? investors impressed by governments underpinning companies? i don't fly these european routes much? flight from vienna was empty 2 weeks ago. no, i am not taking a PCR again anytime soon. they nearly destroyed my nasal passages this time around. stock price was $45 when i posted this short, $41 today... let's talk again in 2 months... we can see if 3 black crows really is a reversal setup or not.
ktaba
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@kremser yeah crude went from 85/barrel to $67. They hedge for that and backwardation happens. Just because your flight was empty and you had a bad experience, doesn’t change facts and reality with travel numbers. Sorry you had to take a PCT test, but humans are social creatures and life and travel will go on. With every variant, people are getting desensitized and will do what they want to do. We can chat and see how Christmas travel goes, that’s the biggest seasonal travel of the year and it’s pretty much the Super Bowl for the airlines. I’ll admit there will choppy trading until we get clarity on the new strain. We’ve had Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lamda, Mu and now Omicron. This won’t be the last and travel will rip higher still.