SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 17 to Nov 21, 2025

🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 17 to Nov 21, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Shutdown fallout still clearing: Several reports from October remain at risk of delay (especially import prices, industrial production, housing data). Markets may react more to yields and tech leadership while waiting for the data stream to fully normalize.
🏠 Housing + manufacturing week: The middle of the week clusters the biggest releases — Philly Fed, Housing Starts, Permits, and FOMC Minutes. This is where volatility can show up.
📉 Labor digest Thursday: Claims + the delayed September employment report hit at the same time — rare setup that can move both bonds and equities.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)

Below are only the events that actually matter for traders
(all shutdown-risk items marked ⚠️)

MONDAY, NOV 17

⏰ 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing (Nov)
 Forecast: 5.5 vs 10.7 prior
 Regional but can influence sentiment on macro slowdown.

TUESDAY, NOV 18

⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct)
⏰ ⚠️ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Oct)
 Both may still be delayed due to the prior shutdown.
 These matter for inflation inputs and growth pulse if they print.

WEDNESDAY, NOV 19 — Biggest Day of the Week

⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov)
 Forecast: 3.0 vs –12.8 prior
 High-impact regional gauge — often leads ISM.

⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Oct)
 Shutdown-risk remains; key for housing cycle momentum.

⏰ 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting)
 Top-tier macro catalyst of the week.
 Markets focus on: cuts timeline, inflation language, financial conditions.

THURSDAY, NOV 20 — Labor Cluster

⏰ 8:30 AM — Delayed Employment Report (Sept)
 • Nonfarm Payrolls: 22,000
 • Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
 • Wages: 0.3% m/m
 Extremely important — markets treat this like a fresh NFP.

⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)
 Forecast: 225,000
 Matters even more because CPI/PPI were delayed.

⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct)
 Forecast: 4.08M
 Secondary but helps gauge consumer + housing softness.

FRIDAY, NOV 21

⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov)
 • Services: 54.8
 • Manufacturing: 52.5
 Fastest high-freq read of growth — always matters.

⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov)
 Forecast: 51.0
 Low sentiment keeps pressure on consumer outlook.

⚠️ Reports that may be delayed:
• Import Prices
• Industrial Production & CapU
• Housing Starts / Permits
• A small chance of lingering delays on later October data

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.

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