SPY/SPX500: Bearish Setup Ahead of Key Macro Events

30 Nis

🔍 15-Min Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025

The S&P 500 (SPX500) is currently facing resistance near the 5,560.65 zone, a confluence of a key Fibonacci level (0.382 retracement) and a rising wedge upper boundary. Price has shown signs of rejection after a recovery from the ORB low of 5,505.88, and is struggling to break above 5,557–5,560, which aligns with a prior supply zone.

🔧 Technical Breakdown:
Bearish Rising Wedge Formation: Price is respecting the wedge trendlines, suggesting a potential breakdown.

Fibonacci Confluence Zones:

Resistance: 0.382 at 5,557.18

Support: 1.382 extension aligns with 5,508.75, which is just above the ORB low and a possible target.

Short Bias Trigger: A clean break below the wedge support (~5,545) could accelerate downside.

Target Zones:

🎯 First target: 5,524.39 (ORB low)

🎯 Second target: 5,508–5,505 area (Fibo 1.382 + ORB range support)

🔮 Probability Outlook:
Bearish bias: 65%

Bullish breakout: 25%

Sideways consolidation: 10%

🧠 Macro Context:
With U.S. GDP and FOMC decisions imminent, volatility is expected to spike. A break below wedge support could trigger a retracement toward key support zones. Be cautious of false breakouts as macro catalysts come into play.

📌 Watch the 5,545 level closely. Rejection + volume drop = high-probability short setup.

30 Nis

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Be careful here, it could reverse.

30 Nis

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