Hi Guys. This is a Technical Analysis Update on Oatly, (OTLY). On the 1 Week Timeframe.
We are in a critical area for OTLY.
We have continued our DECLINE from the REJECTION area
With last weeks candle close, We have CLOSED BELOW the "MAJOR SUPPORT" Area.
This candle close isn't enough information to assess what comes next. The next week or the next couple weeks we need CONFIRMATION.
So its important to observe what happens next.
So couple of scenarios can occur:
1. We confirm back ABOVE the MAJOR SUPPORT line. Leading to the formation of a DOUBLE BOTTOM pattern. This would confirm our bottom for OTLY, and we start to move back up to Resistance levels.
2. We CONFIRM our break BELOW the MAJOR SUPPORT. Leading to not only ALL TIME LOWS, but the potential for the DESCENDING Triangle to play out.
If thats the case, we can go as LOW as $0.40 cents. But without data points, its hard to assess if we do go down that far or stop before.
Notice also the "Bullish Divergence Trendline" on Price action. This line coincides with our "Measured Target". Could be an area where we bounce from and be a potential Bottom area.
3. Ideal scenario would be we come down a bit lower from the Major SUPPORT Line and start our way back up ABOVE "Major Support". This would form a "Head" and play into a potential bottoming pattern, the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. The First green circle indicating our 1st bottom of potential double bottom, would be our left shoulder.
Watch also the RSI. We are nearing a Support test on the "Bullish DIVERGENCE" trendline. We want this to stay as support. We don't want a break and confirmation BELOW the RED dashed line. It could negate our Bullish Divergence Trend.
The STOCH RSI is also something to watch. We have traveled BELOW the 20 level. Extended stay below here, would indicate further Price DECLINES. We would like to see a BUllish cross back ABOVE 20 level for Bullish Momentum to come in and push prices back up. If we do get a cross, then Double bottom is likely.
We need to stay level headed as OTLY bottoms out. Take it one step at a time with an objective mindset.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on OTLY in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Yorum
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We have Continued Lower Below the Major Support.
Its still hard to assess how far we go lower.
Ive noticed as im always looking for Bottoming patterns.
We could be in the Process of a Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
With our Current Price Action being the Head.
Notice how our VOLUME is lower than the "Potential Left Shoulder".
Still too early though so for now lets keep that in the back of our minds.
Yorum
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Quick update on OTLY.
On the 1 Day timeframe
Pay attention to todays close on the daily candle.
We are in the process of printing a Hammer candle. Print of Hammer candles during a Downtrend can indicate Reversal Signs. They tend to be Strong signals for Reversal.
ALso pay attention to the Volume. Notice how our current volume is Declining. Comparing it to the area titled "Left Shoulder", this area has Lower Volume.
Usually the Head of Inverse Head & shoulder patterns have this Volume trend when compared to Left Shoulder.
Still early in my opinion for determining if we are infact printing a Inverse head & shoulder but it warrants paying attention now.
MACD is also showing signs of waning Bearish momentum. Theres a pattern fo the Red bars declining in size.
For signs of reversal to Upside: watch for confirmation of the Hammer candle print and a MACD bullish cross.
Yorum
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This is an update on the 1 week timeframe. So it gives a bigger picture than 1 day. (This weeks candle is not complete at the time of posting this update, wait for Friday end of trading session.)
Until proven otherwise, we are still in a DOWNTREND.
Until proven otherwise, we are most likely playing out the Descending triangle pattern measured move to $0.50.
It is important to always respect the trend we are in.
It is therefore important for us to keep an eye for signs of Potential Reversals.
We are Currently below the Lower trendline of the downtrend channel for the 2nd time in history.
Notice how the 1st time, we touched the 2nd trendline below, printed an Inverted hammer, and moved back into the Channel
Will we do the same? Hard to say but likely not, but it does help us give clues.
If the same pattern were to repeat, we would then have to complete the descending triangle pattern measured target, before any signs of reversal can give us momentum.
So its key to see how this current candle ends up. Since we are in the process of printing a INVERTED HAMMER candle.
Inverted hammers if printed are usually strong signs of price reversal. keep that it mind.
We however also have had a failed Inverted Hammer pattern occur.
If this weeks candle closed as is and inverted hammer prints.
Look for next weeks candle to OPEN (lower rim of body of candle) and close (upper rim of body of candle) above the Upper rim of the body of the inverted hammer. This is a tail tale sign that Inverted Hammer Reversal is playing out (as seen in the Successful hammer pattern).
If we open the week, below the Lower rim of Inverted hammer, chances are the Inverted hammer will fail to attempt Reversal. As seen during the FAILED attempt.
Note the last 11 out of 12 candles have been red candles. Last 6 candles have been Red in a row.
The more candles in a row we have in 1 direction, the higher the probability the opposite direction candle will appear as well.
Now lets take a look at VOLUME. The last 6 bars since September have shown an expansion in volume (Red arrow). This has helped push prices down. As an increase in volume when a trend is highlighted, in this case downtrend normally accelerates that trend to continue.
I would like to see Volume decrease signficantly and calm down before a Reversal can be attempted.
Notice also the black arrow, indicating a larger trend of volume decreasing in intensity overtime. This is in favor of volume getting close to calming down and for an eventual chance of reversal.
RSI is flashing OVERSOLD conditions on Weekly. This is the lowest RSI we've been since May 2022. This is in favor of being supportive of signs of Reversal.
MACD -> we continue to be in a Bearish trend, with the presence of Red bars. However note, that our current bar is a light red. This is indication that Bearish momentum is waning. FOr MACD to support signs of Reversal we need a BULLISH CROSS and presence of green bars.
Yorum
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Heres an Update on OTLY on 1 week timeframe.
We are first time in the history of price action of OTLY ABOVE the 50 SMA on 1 week timeframe.
1st TIME IN HISTORY OF OTLY
I would like to see a more decisive confirmation such as a big body candle.
Small body wicked bodies give indecision. And doing something for the 1st time is a big thing.
We are also consolidating in a tight range between around $0.90 cents to $1.40.
$1.40 and ABove being serious resistance. It will be key for OTLY to move demand into $1.40 and higher. TO also have it act as support.
A break below the Bottom of the range would lead to OTLY to re-test the bottom at around $0.40 cents.
I would watch price and see whether or not we stay Above the 50 SMA and 21 EMA.
If we continue to do so in a consistent basis. This would lead 21 EMA to cross Above 50 SMA leading to a golden cross.
This would be a BUllish signal that may signal a bull run to higher lvls.
Things maybe starting to heat up for OTLY.
MACD is an indicator to watch. On 1 week if it the blue/orange Bullish cross moves ABOVE 0 level, this can signal the influx of momentum to support a bullish rally.
I would also watch for a break and confirmation Above the current consolidation zone.
Looking at original chart. Descending triangle target worked pretty well, appeared to be a good buy opportunity, curios if the price will comeback to test the lows.
SafofAllTrades
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@yurii678, Hey Yuri! Whats up buddy. Its a possibility as of now. $1.26 to $1.35 is being a tough cookie to beat. But as of now it seems more likely to happen because last 2 weeks, both candles have been weak. Small bodies, upper wicks seen. Can be buckling from the overhead resistance. Only thing that can change my mind is a decisive move ABOVE $1.35 and confirmation seen. Ill be sure to add an update.
Gjutbordiies
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Whats your take on Oatly now? Will it keep falling and be delisted from nasdaq?
SafofAllTrades
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@Gjutbordiies, Hi! Great question. Currently we are seeing some Buy pressure come in. So we need to monitor exactly what this means, if this price area is in fact a place where traders/ investors think OTLY is a Buy and if the "BUY" mindset is enough to bring OTLY back above 1$ or its some temporary BUYS before another sell off. The delisting factor, i mean we are currently below the $1.00 level, so there is a risk (going to keep it honest). But even after a warning from an exchange, they get some time to try to make the requirements. This last quarter will be crucial for them. They need to maintain a price above 1$ and maintain other criteria which they are currently fulfilling. So we need to see if this current activity is enough for OTLY to get back above $1. Ill post some TA updates soon so keep an eye.