Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: 97/contract Max Loss: $2303 Break Even: 23.03
* -- Assuming price goes to zero and you do no rolls or take other loss mitigation measures (e.g., sell short call verts against, etc.).
Notes: With background implied volatility greater than 35% and with the recent sell-off in both oil and the broad market, I'm getting into this underlying at a price extreme, but will work it a little differently than I ordinary do. Here, the goal will be to reduce cost basis over time, with each roll taken being for a credit .... .
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Covering here for a .55/contract debit: .42/$42 per contract profit. Rotating into XOP instead, which is a bit more liquid and a touch more beefy ... .