Last week price consolidated as market participants waited on new information and were unwilling to commit to a direction going into the long weekend. I would expect more volatility this week as more data will be released and earnings season kicks off on Friday.
SUMMARY • Nasdaq posted a 1.09% loss last week after trading in a tighter range of 396 points. • Price remained above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma. • Last week’s price consolidation held above the Feb 2nd high • Sectors rotated again last week with money shifting back into XLV, XLE & XLU from XLK & XLY • Market is in a wait and see mode after a low volatility week • Potential catalysts this week are the FOMC Minutes and CPI data • Earnings season kicks off on Friday with reports from JPM, C, UNH & WFC • Market expecting Fed rate pause but watching for signs of a recession • NQ bullish momentum driven by Mega caps stocks making it vulnerable to a negative surprise from one or two stocks • Key support and resistance zones remain the same as last week. • Now in a historically bullish period for stocks
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Wholesale inventories & Fed heads speak Tuesday 3 Fed Heads speak & BOC Rate statement Wednesday US CPI, FOMC Minutes & BOC Rate Decision + EIA Crude Inventories Thursday US PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims Friday US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production & University of Mich. Sentiment
NQ held Feb 2nd high Bullish consolidation at recent high Price above 9/21/55 ema and 200 SMA 50 SMA is above the 200 SMA Harmonic completion zone at 13604 may act as magnet Now within Longer term Fib neutral zone. Dropping yields and USD Potential positive reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes Historically bullish period for stocks Earnings season starts Friday with banks
BEARISH NOTES
Opening week still below 786 Fib resistance Potential negative reaction to Fed Head talk Potential deeper p/b to 21 ema or upward trendline Potential negative reaction to CPI & FOMC Minutes Momentum concentrated in a small amount of stocks Potential hard reversal at harmonic completion zone (13604) Yields and the USD close to support and may reverse trend Potential rise in OIL prices
Yorum
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Here is a repost of the bearish harmonic that is in play on the NQ. Competition zone is at 13640. I treat the completion zone as a target for longs and will expect resistance if price gets there. A break above the stop at the 1.13 Fib X would be very bullish. The harmonic targets on a p/b will be treated as areas of support.
Yorum
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After a few days of back and forth price action NQ_F has completed a p/b to the bottom of the first green box and the 21 ema. Dropping PPI and high job claims have given it a bounce this AM. Break back above the 9 ema would be bullish. Even more bullish to clear the Feb 2nd high. 1st upside target would be the recent high.