US 100 Fact VS Fiction Trading; How We Called The Move..

11 Ağu 2023

So I recently called the US100 via the skilling ticker short in various posts, streams and videos aswell as other global index and futures markets. This was just before the recent enormous fall which we can reflect on;

Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.

Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.

Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.

I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.

From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.

So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.

11 Ağu 2023

Not

Anticipating further falls in the market to long term key PA zones.

11 Ağu 2023

Not

Great idea now to lock in gains via trailing stop and/or total exit + Entry on pops back up.

11 Ağu 2023

Not

Holding off major longs into Monday.

12 Ağu 2023

Not

Use the weekend to plan and check over entries for new longs and exits for shorts taken, if you are investor/long term swing trading / locking in gains.

13 Ağu 2023

Not

No news monday. Looking ahead in the week for extended moves.

14 Ağu 2023

Not

Larger push needed for new re shorts.

14 Ağu 2023

Not

Still needing a higher move RE re entry.

14 Ağu 2023

Not

Look at second level of 1HR / 4hr resistance.

15 Ağu 2023

Not

Looking to scale re short

15 Ağu 2023

Not

Ideally 15400.

16 Ağu 2023

Not

Hold off any longs.

16 Ağu 2023

Not

Preparing for minor long entries on big fall.

17 Ağu 2023

Not

Large rises need for RE short entries.

17 Ağu 2023

Not

Hold of any new longs until far lower for investor trend.

20 Ağu 2023

Not

Check over 12M chart for very long term fall case. It’s there..!

21 Ağu 2023

Not

No enormous news scheduled, latter stages likely to help.

23 Ağu 2023

Not

Re shorting still higher as per stream this AM.

25 Ağu 2023

Not

Maintaining short bias.

25 Ağu 2023

Not

Exit for gains

30 Ağu 2023

Not

Still short, (reshort)

6 Eki 2023

Not

Out of shorts. Hold off for new longs.

9 Eki 2023

Not

Exit any longs and re short nearer 15100

10 Eki 2023

Not

Shorts applicable similar to other indexes

26 Kas 2023

Not

Back up to long term short entries.