GBPUSD - 1W Analysis

2 Eyl 2015

GBPUSD

The recent big drop caught me by surprise. My bull bias was weakened. Decided to review 1W chart to regroup. Honestly, I my bias is still weak. Based on 1W, I am not bearish (yet) and more confirmation is needed to strengthen bullish action.

What I see (all observations are LONG TERM):

Big down move previous week, with potentially more downside pressure this week.
(I placed a losing trade using 4H/1H and tight SL in hopes of a bounce off of 1.5331 support.)

• If 1.5170 support holds, I expect a break through 1.5331 resistance to 1.5930. If that breaks, next move would be to 1.6188.
  

• If 1.5170 breaks, I expect range trading for an extended period of time. A break of 1.4566 would be needed for Long-Term Bear bias.
  

I don't trade on 1W charts. I only use them to help form a bias and identify substantial resistances/support lines.

Bottom line - my bias for GBPUSD:
- Short-term...depends on risk/reward and overall trade set ups. (SEE BELOW FOR SHORT-TERM SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME 9/2 GBPUSD trading at 1.5294)
- Above 1.5400 and trending up 4H, I will be a tentative Bull (w/ tight SL)
- Ultimately, I expect to RANGE TRADE. What needs to be determine is if 1.5170 is the bottom of the range.


As far as SHORT-TERM specific actions...
- Risk/Reward would prohibit any Long entry at this time.
- Potential Short set up with a pullback.
Consider Entry @ 1.5330 (or in the 1.5325-1.5345 range)
SL @ 1.5390 (60 pips)
TP1 @ 1.5200 (130 pips) {Possible early exit @ 1.5220 (110 pips)}
TP2@ 1.5185 (145)