ANALYSIS: EURUSD Outlook: Pattern Explosion! What Happens Now?

26 Tem 2015

Like some kind of triangular madman went haywire with his ruler, patterns galore appear before us in this pair! How to make sense of it all? They seem to be all kinds of ways and giving conflicting directions!

Well, yes. They are giving conflicting and confusing signals here and would seem to be useless in helping to determine what to do now...if you only looked at the patterns. This is why I don't use and trade patterns exclusively and use them in conjunction with other tried-and-true methods of magical divination in order to make sense of it all. So let's get to it.

The chart you see here is showing the 1Hr TF. So these patterns you see are short-term patterns in the sense that they could happen within the day.

SCENARIO #1 (chart above - preferred scenario)
The first pattern that should be accounted for is the rising wedge pattern. For the time being, prices are moving within this channel. Within this rising wedge channel, it could be forming a Wolfe Wave (yellow) and are working on the 5h leg of it. I would expect that should prices complete the 5th leg of the Wolfe Wave, that could also complete a simple ABC zigzag correction correcting the previous impulse wave. There is also a possibility that prices may continue up and out of the wedge extending the 5h leg of the Wolfe Wave into the completion of the bearish bat pattern overhead (green) in what would be a "5th wave throwover" and then we will see prices drop down from there in another short wave down stopping off briefly for a small retrace when it hits the bullish cypher and the Wolfe Wave target line and then resume dropping into the rising trend line where we have a bullish crab and also a larger bullish Gartley waiting for it . More on those patterns later

Scenario #2
In this scenario, prices have already completed a simple ABC zigzag corrective wave correcting the previous impulse wave and is now already dropping towards the bottom rising channel trend line. Along the way, prices will retrace slightly when it meets the bullish cypher and then continue to drop to the trend line where there is the bullish crab and the larger bullish Gartley (DAILY chart) waiting for it.

OVERVIEW (Monthly Chart)
Pretty clear what is happening here. Prices are in the final stages of completing the double zigzag corrective wave correcting the previous impulse wave. One more push down where there will be a small "throwover" ("small" being a relative term since this is a MONTHLY chart and any move is a large move in terms of pips) and prices should reach into the VERY SIGNIFICANT 1.0000 price and eventually even slightly below it where the completion of the POTENTIAL bullish deep crab pattern and the .786 retrace of the previous impulse wave awaits. At that point, we will probably see the start of a huge prolonged wave up.


WEEKLY VIEW
In the below WEEKLY chart, zooming in to the current price action, you can see prices are clearly making a corrective wave. In this corrective wave, there are 2 possibilities that I see as to how things can unfold (yes, there are many other possible ways as well but these are the 2 I think will happen).
1. It can unfold in a simple ABC zigzag pattern (shown in black) where point C may end at the .382 retrace of the previous impulse wave and also form an AB=CD pattern
2. Prices can trace out a contracting triangle pattern (shown in red)

I also show 2 harmonic patterns here: 1. Bearish bat (purple) and 2. a bearish crab (in blue). Should prices move in the direction of the ABC zigzag pattern, there is possibilities that wave C will extend past the .382 and reach either the 50% or the 61.8% retrace of the previous impulse wave where either one of these 2 patterns will be waiting.