In this video I discuss the ongoing strong ETH rally and some of the components that is make it a very strong one.
ETH is hitting here some resistance in the books and there is aggressive short selling in the forward futures market (not the perpetual swaps)
The video goes through that is going with Futures and why it is in backwardation.
Everyone is very keen for the the 16th September and get those free coins from the fork... only to dump them after.
Expect huge volatility around those dates.
Watch the video for more details and HIT THE LIKE !
Yorum
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Come to my attention that merge is not going to yield immediately the forked coins to eth spot holders. I am not following the details of this scheduled but those who carry such kind of trades need to be aware of what is going, possible changes or any nuances in way coins will be distributed.
Nonetheless. There will be a distribution unless merge is delayed etc.
The carry trade can and will go on as long as needed. So is irrelevant if the distribution of "free coins" is later or ealier. Traders will be holding ETH and shorting futures as long as possible as way to remain delta neutral.
The stronger than usual ETH demand at the moment is strongly also influenced by the ongoing futures trade which offer a way for some type of opportunist traders not care about direction of price in following months while still waiting for the time those tokens are distributed.
Of course after all this settlement there will be other risks like which exchanges that allow to sell ETHpow coins and if both of coins will maintain any sort of parity, if there will be liquidity. IT IS NOT ALL ROSES.
This type of trade involves some other type of risk due to uncertainty of the future (ex merge postponed/canceled) like any other financial product on the market.
SO as in my video disclaimer.... my ideas, opinions, thoughts... are not financial advise.
You have a fundamental FLAW in your analysis. The coins locked in the beacon chain are unable to be freed on Sep. 16th once the merge is completed. A little bit of research from the core developers on ethereum.org will yield that answer on the FAQ section on the merge. That will happen with the Shanghai upgrade 6-12 months after the merge. Coin issuance will actually go down creating a lower supply of ETH. Do some research before posting mis-information.