Bitcoin had been forming a rising channel for quite a few days here which is seen best on the 4hr chart timeframe. I chose to show it on the 1day timeframe though because the channels breakdown target just so happens to align with the daily 50ma(orange line). It would make a lot of sense for it to retrace to the 50ma and attempt to retest it as support. Of course being that we are in the midst of a potential phase 3 of our bull market, this also increases the chances of bearish patterns not hitting their full breakdown targets(especially on time frames smaller than 1day). So there’s no guarantee it hits its full breakdown target. Many times in this cycle of the market price can even form bearish patterns that till find a way to break upwards. There’s also a chance here much like when we topped out in 2019 after a big parabolic pump in of this just being the beginning of the correction and for price to break down from even a couple more additional bearish patterns as well. So I will do my best to keep things updated If I see any further bearish patterns form off of wherever this one goes but for now, I preliminarily am going to try to get a small dip buy in if it reaches this current potential break down target and then watch for t he next pattern to develop after that. *not financial advice*
Yorum
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Bitcoin has done a great job at floating sideways since breaking downward frm the rising channel. Since we are in the middle of the bullish market cycle bearish chart patterns dont always hit the full 100% price of their breakdown target but I still think its very likely this ones target at around 54k can still get hit
I’m in the 2019 camp. Seems very similar especially in respect to monetary policy (QT vs QE). Don’t think the mania phase of the bull run, especially alt season, arrives until interest rates bottom and QE returns.
DrDovetail
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@ealsup, very possible. In the past right when they begin cutting rats is typically not long after when they finally admit we are in a recession. I anticipate the same this time and I don’t believe it will be a soft landing whatsoever. Typically in those kind of situations, I would expect everything to crash including crypto, but there is a chance that crypto can be the safe haven from very other asset and rise during the next crash. I was originally anticipating the top of the bull market to likely be shortly after they cut rates but perhaps not if crypto is the safe haven for every other markets collapse during such a recession. We will see soon enough. Also possible for us to have some sort of black swan coincide with this correction, then pump all the way back up again (similar to 2020-2021) before they cut rates and then cut rates and hit the bull market top for crypto.