We're witnessing one of the most prolonged impulsive moves down in Bitcoin history. I can see only 2 comparable strips longer than 15 candles in terms of TD count:
* 17 red candles strip in June, 2013 * 20 red candles strip, in november, 2018
In both cases they've set or closely preceeded a major market low. The latter is the case for 2018.
Anyway, if we take a look at daily TF that's what we see:
* TD count=15 and going. * A falling wedge, albeit sparse. * Flattening MACD * CMF recovering to zero * Volume on 9th candle.
It is possible the bottom has been set already on May, 19th and that price is forming a double bottom. Anyway, any further spike down up to 27.700$ wouldn't change the overall picture.
While it's definetely too soon to debate about trend, we're likely to see a good bounce soon. So either watch the upper bound of the wedge or take a ride with a stop.
42.000-44.000$ the first resistance area. Then we'll further evaluate.
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MACD VXI
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Short term TF (1H / 4H) are still mixed, so mind the fact we may still see some volatility prior of the bounce. What matters is volume.
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TF 1H show RSI/Stoch topping, with price at resistance.
It may need another try to breakout resistance, after pulling back lower. Patience.
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... here we go.
Now VOLUME please,we don't want to have the daily candle suppressed. Let's roll.
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Let's blindly speculate for a moment.
Bulls basicaly have 2 cards to play here, depending on how much volume they have up their sleeves:
Either straight up or (risky) pullback and inverted H&S. Failing both, back to drawing board.
let's see.
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40.000 $ reached.
I've heard Elon Musk tweeted again ? Who cares, then.
Depending on your view on the matter, either we predicted a bitcoin bounce or an upcoming Musk tweet yesterday. Right, yesterday. ;)
Enough for jokes. Now let's please complete this move. Not out of the woods yet.
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update:
Scenario a) gone. Scenario b) still possible.
Failing that be careful.
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Nearing the target resistance area proposed into the opening post.
That's a troublesome area, the outcome of test of previous support (now resistance) will probably decide short term trend.
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Still negligible volume.
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No volume. No progress. No change. Boring.
Yet we have a triangle in the works, watch it carefully.
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Comment: Still going ... nowhere. A different view:
On a close above 39k there's decent chance the key resistance area could be 41.500$ to 43.500$. That's close to the levels i've mentioned in OP a week ago, just marginally lower.
Mind the moving averages (price currently at resistance) and the edge of BBs. Last, but not least, mind the descending purple resistance: above 39k a pullback towards it would be pretty natural imho.
That said, still no volume. Hence not much more to be said, for now.
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Still no volume, still sideways. No progress.
Possible descending channel forming, look at intersection with support. Short term congestion likely.
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Scenario will remais the same until we see a higher high or a lower low on volume. Simple as that.
Patience matters.
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While short term price action lacks interest, let's zoom out a bit and take a look at the overall picture as a whole, on Weekly TF:
Basically (imho) current game is being played between MA20/W (strong resistance) and MA50/W + lower BB (strong support). A touch of the latter may help ingnite a stronger bounce. MA50/W is still rising as you may notice.
So far we have a small triangle capped by notorious short term resistance in the 41,5-43,5k range. Since i'm seeing support building below, i still think that resistance area will be visited.
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Let me add MA50/W sits currently a tad above the 29k mark, up from the 27,7k level i mentioned in my opening post here. Any low above that wouldn't change the picture.
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I posted about MACD VXI above, on may 24th. Here is it now:
No surprise.
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Bitcoin has another chance to attack resistance (red line).
Usually descending channels break up.
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Another slump in hash rate yesterday. That's due to China.
This week is proving the worst ever in term of hashrate freefall. Worse than may.
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Both channels broke up, as usual. Still can't see any volume.
Bulls should try to clear 40906$, which is the top of the bounce i mentioned in the OP ( it happened on the 26th, two days later).
Then i would like to see a test of the resistance area. Maybe 2-3 days to try to achieve that, but more volume needed.
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Comment: Meanwhile i would see some bottoming on Hash Ribbons indicator.
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A quick look at longer term (weekly TF):
Almost a hammer on the 9th candle, with some slight volume highlight. Test of lower BB achieved, seemingly bottoming MACD.
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Comment: IF Bitcoin manages to reach 42k on decent volume things will heat up. Two options: rejection or short squeeze.
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Getting closer, isn't it ?
Key resistance area is still the one i introduced in the opening post, 3 weeks ago. Maybe 500$ lower. That's where the game is likely to be played.
Bulls need to ignite a short squeeze above 42.000$ or this move risks to be a pullback within a composite correctione. Play smart.
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Running on thin ice:
Bounce?
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Let's see.
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Pretty curious: BTCUSDLONGS at ATH.
Like at december, 2019.
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And shorts close to bottom:
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A bit of wishful thinking on intraday ?
Bitcoin needs a relief bounce. Hopefully a wedge and a diamond would suffice.
Further pressure on support should be avoided. Let's see, fingers crossed.
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traight to support instead.
Round #1 nearing end, could be worse. Let's see daily close, but what matters is weekly close.
Given the start will be a long and interesting week.
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Intraday:
at resistance after breakout of flag:
Needs to breakout the descending broadening wedge,
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Rejected for now, lacking volume.
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Second try.
Volume please or it will slump.
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Futures esxpiration putting quite some pressure upon price. Let's see in 2-3 hours.
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Weakness on futures expiration, as well a pullback to the edge of the broadening wedge were in the cards.
What's concerning is the slump in the last 2/3 hours, seemingly with negation of a falling wedge. Basically here the problem with price is: *too low, too early*.
Bitcoin need to recover over 33.500$ at very least, as going sideways under 33.000$ is highly risky.
That means closing that pocket under the fuchsia line with a fakeout and stay within the black channel. Otherwise it can get messy again.
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Some wild action yesterday. Sorry for being so late.
1) watch upcoming test of resistance:
2) Then here's the short term scenario:
Basically: breakout of a descending broadening wedge via a diamond (supported by bullish divergence). Actually enroute over short term support. Watch the resistance test mentioned above.
3) If support (or the below trendline) holds it would allow some "sideways" channel scenario:
4) For now let's check weekly close, tonight. What's highly needed is a close well above MA50/W (blue).
Hey dude, I just wanted to give you a shout-out for quality analysis over the last few years. Grounded, factual and usually quite accurate too. Great job.