It has been a while since my last TA, because I've been quite busy with my indicators. But most of all, my opinions hasn't changed. In the meanwhile BTCUSD is actually sort of confirming my last TA.
I still believe BTCUSD is forming a massive symmetrical triangle caused by the last 2 parabolic runs of 2017 and 2019. I believe the next parabolic bull run will start just before the BTC halving, next year!. Besides that, the next financial crisis is just around the corner. Otherwise it's all just a coincidence and BTC will break out to the upside a lot sooner than to be expected. Hopefully I am not mistaken though. Who wouldn't love to accumulate more BTC at the $4700 region, before the next parabolic bull run? I've drawn out the past and current prediction triangles, as you can see in the price action chart. The falling wedges are forming quite frighteningly similar. My crypto senses are telling me, crazy volatility is incoming. Here is a summary of which in my opinion the current prominent patterns are:
Short-term: Rising broadening channel or a neck & shoulder. (bearish), keeps testing the support line for the time being. Otherwise it breaks out to the upside, testing the current falling wedge's resistance.
Mid-term: Falling wedge and later descending broadening channel/reverse neck & shoulder (all bullish), I reckon it's currently just testing and confirming the resistance of this falling wedge, if next monthly candle closes(21st of October.) approximately at the golden retrace($7200 region) and the bears gets reject, then we might see a confirmation of the resistance which is also the 0.5 fib level. If it does break to the upside, I reckon it will be just a deviation in the daily and shorter time frames and gets rejected at the 0.382 fib. level. Conforming the falling wedge has turned into a descending broadening channel, heading back towards the higher low region of the symmetrical triangle or the lower low of the forming descending broadening channel or perhaps even a reversed neck & shoulder pattern, will obviously have to wait for the bulls & bears before confirming this.
Long-term: Symmetrical triangle (bullish on steroids). Well this part, is the end game. We'll have to wait until the higher low gets confirmed around the $4700 region. We'll know approximately 9th of march 2020. But as you can see, there is only one way this can happen.
Advice: Always look at the charts first before taking any considerations of what you hear on the news or whatsoever. The markets never lies, but people do... Dashed lines are extrapolation and possible break out targets or price action trajectory.
To be concluded...
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first target reached, will the support reject the bears bouncing back towards the resistance or incoming breakout to the downside?
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Bottom broken through, let's see if it current consolidation turns out to be a rising wedge. Then next target fib golden retrace level.
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Bull rejected bears at support, looking for a good long position to open.
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Rsiging broadening channels, has broken through the downside, let watch if it heads towards futher the fib. golden retrace.
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Just wicked tick on the golden fib retrace, got a feeling that bulls gonna reject bears at golden retrace. But we'll see..
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Not sure whether the current consolidation is a rising wedge or an ascending triangle. Although I'm leaning more towards to ascending triangle. It can also continue to consolidate towards the golden retrace. Confirming support before heading towards the resistance.
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Whale Alert, last 10 mins. 19,988,870 #USDT (19,911,844 USD) transferred from #Bitfinex to unknown wallet 674 #BTC (5,073,242 USD) transferred from #Coinbase to unknown wallet
Got a feeling something's up...
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Opened a small limit order long position at $7410, S/L at $7390 in case it breaks out to the downside. Let's see if it's gonna get filled.
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Wow, felt something's was up, but didn't expect a 13% break out!
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Closed position took some profit, I fear this is gonna consolidate for a while. I reckon BTCUSD will be dancing some more between resistance of the falling wedge and 0.5 fib level, then prepare for retest of falling wedge support or another breakout to the upside.
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Idea still possible, falling wedge resistance confirmed. Time to test support once again, before heading towards the end game.
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Expecting more dancing on the support of this FW, before retesting the resistance.
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Don't expect big break outs anytime soon. Currently cautiously scalping.
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Retesting resistance a bit sooner than expected?
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will the neck & shoulder break out to the upside retesting resistance approx. $8600 region.
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Can you believe it?! After a year this prediction came true to the freaking dollar. Perhaps even going beyond....!