OBV strongly indicates that a market turnaround is imminent

Since 11.6k, the OBV has been following a trend line even though almost every indicator has given mixed signals about whether a recovery was going to happen between then & now. I only know of one other TA who uses OBV, & no TA I've seen on tradingview seems to use it.

Why is it so important? Because at various times since 11.6k, some of the "best" TAs I follow have predicted a recovery - especially when btc was going up past 9k. Despite the up & down, 4hr OBV has followed that diagonal line for a month.

BUT.. now there's a strong indicator that the market is indeed about to turn bullish based on the 4hr OBV:
1. OBV is flattening out, & starting to turn into an upward diagonal
2. It is flattening out & turning upward ABOVE the downward diagonal. At various times, the OBV has flattened & turned upward - but it has done so below the downward trend line. It has popped above the trend line for a short time only to turn around & go back along the trend line again.
3. It has stayed above the downward trend line for longer than any other time (since 11.6k)
4. It is above the downward trend line higher than at any other time (since 11.6k)

Does this mean that we won't go any lower? No. If you look at the 4hr OBV, the OBV stays pretty flat despite massive changes in price. The OBV can continue to be flat, & we could still revisit closer to 6k. I think we are in a Wyckoff Accumulation phase, & we are still to experience a "spring" which is the final test of the bottom before a bull run.

Why the 4hr OBV? I think it's superior to the 1D OBV. If you look at the 1D OBV, it looks virtually identical to the 1D RSI & the 1D price chart - so it's pointless. The 4HR OBV on the other hand follows trend lines very strongly regardless of the price. The fact that it followed that diagonal downward trend line almost perfectly for a month shows how good it is. Other indicators oscillated within the month, so they weren't a good long-term indicator.

Speculation on what is happening in the market: A lot of analysts keep saying the price of btc is going down to 5k, 4K, 3k. I think they're the opposite of the Grandma investor who thinks the price of btc will keep going up in a bull market, whereas these TAs keep thinking the price will keep going down in a bear market. Now while I recognize that TAs are better at determining when a price is going to start turning, they are arguably more dangerous than the Grandma investor because they're so convinced of their analysis they aren't aware of their bias, & their knowledge convinces them that they are right & smarter than Grandma. At least Grandma admits she knows nothing.

What I think is happening is that there are some huge investors getting into the market now (Soros, Rockefeller etc.) & they are slowly accumulating. Whether they plan to dump the market in the future is anyone's guess, but they are definitely not accumulating to dump right now because obviously that would be a huge loss for them to do that - they would wait for BTC to hit 20k first.

I also think that the crypto market is recovering. There's a new batch of investors who are getting into alt-coins when the prices are cheap - you can see prices up across the board in altcoins. This in turn is helping the demand for btc to stay high.

The waves are double & triple the time length compared to back in Jan/Feb/March where we would see massive changes in price in a short period. Volatility is a factor of time. Everything goes up & down in price by huge amounts, but btc is volatile because it does so in a SHORT period of time. So a huge reduction in volatility is also an indicator that the market is in transition right now.