Here's my full Elliott Wave count

I concede defeat. For a long while I believed that the count from 19k down to 6k was a large ABC pattern. That meant that coming out of 6k was a new 12345 count upward. That got invalidated of course - we are clearly on a 12345 wave down.

So what is the count from the high of 19k? I believe it is as I charted. It is validated by subwaves all the way down to the present time.

It also answers a question I had nagging in the back of my head: "what happens after 12345ABC???" As you can see, after the 12345 up to 19k, it corrected ABC down, and then went sideways in a WXY pattern before starting a 12345 in a new direction. That's the answer: a sideways wave before a new 12345 pattern - could be up, could be down.

So I think that after this 12345 down to $6 or 5k, we will get an ABC going up, then a WXY or other sideways pattern and then we'll see what happens after that.

I have learned my lesson about which time chart to use. I now look at the 1 hr, 2 hr, 4 hr, 1 D and 1 W charts. I analyze all of them now to get an idea of what's happening. Some of the patterns I've recorded predicted that this current uptrend is merely a wave 4 of 5. If it corrects down again - that confirms that my techniques are getting more precise.

I'm developing a system to give an early warning of an impending bottom, detect a bottom and then confirm the bottom after it occurs by overlapping patterns I've seen in the 1 hr, 2 hr, 4 hr and 1D charts. By comparing with fake-outs or subwave bounces, I've noticed that sometimes one or more of the 4 timelines give false signals, but all 4 combined give a pretty solid confirmation. I've also noticed that the technique can be used to detect that a price is going lower. For example, when used to analyze the bounce from $7250 it indicates that the price is still going lower, which of course it did.

As with all things, it will get better over time as it is adjusted with more and more data. If for example btc bounces, and my signals failed - I would have to refine the rules.