I have been mostly focusing on daily time frame analysis with my last two posts showing bullishness.
The last two were my 61.8% fractal as well as the ascending triangle.
We finally had the breakout that we were looking for, but the volume wasn't as strong as I'd like to see.
Longs are looking good and stops are moved to profit after the breakout, but let's get a strong overview of the market.
Let's take a look at a few things on the zoomed out charts (weekly, 3 day and daily) to get some context before we dive into the 240 (4 hour chart.)
On the weekly chart, you can see we've bounced right off of the 20MA, but are still holding the 200MA. (So we continue to be long term bullish unless this is broken, which has never happened with Bitcoin before.)
I love the 3 day chart for Bitcoin as the TD Sequential has worked incredibly well throughout 2018 and 2019 as a potential reversal point.
In early February, I pointed out the 3 day TD9 buy signal and we had a strong rally from it. We are also seeing a very clear ascending triangle on the 3 day chart as well.
On the daily, we can see the ascending triangle again with more clarity and the strong resistance level at $4250. We can also see that we are holding the 20day and 50 day with our eyes on the 200 day MA as a potential target breakout for this ascending traingle.
We are also seeing a break above the Ichi cloud for the first time since before the 6k break. We also saw several clean support bounces off the cloud.
On the 4 hour, we can see an inverse head and shoulders (kind of an ugly one) that's formed, which if we hit the target of the size of the head, should give us a 6% breakout from the neckline at $4250.
We can also see that the 4 hour has been respecting the 200MA as both resistance from before, but also as support on this recent rally from February.
In conclusion, it's good to be in a long position, but if we break up to teh $4250-$4300 level, I would hedge into a low leverage short position in case we get rejected gain.
As we move, I'm trailing my stop losses to lock in my profits.
We may also see one big volume candle to push us through the resistance level if in fact we are going to retest the 200MA and/or the 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
We are still in a downtrend, but the higher lows are good to see on Bitcoin.
Unlike in April of 2018, we're not going to get the 'massive' short squeeze due to the overall margin interest at very low levels.
If you like my work and want to support it, click like on the chart and give me a follow. Coming soon is my full stop loss analysis!
i dont think 4200 area is feasible for now, the maximum we can go is 4150. and really we need to retest the 3600 long liquidity grab.
CryptBay
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Hitting 4.2k or 4.3k is one story, sustaining position is another.
I am afraid it will be a short-lived
pkb6698
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I think we are in 2015.
Namah-Te
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tommix
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Looking strong? jeez stop smoking that shit. it will collapse in next 24h
TradeIndicators
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Volume is going to be key and this is why we decided to exit 25% today on our long trade. If the bullish volume isn't there we might see a spike up for a bull trap and then enter into another downtrend.
We're protecting losses with a stop loss line and a sell stop ready in case we move back down but the HH and HL formation is looking nice with a bounce off this resistance, now support. Thanks for the great update Jacob!