Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until 2K. I think we already reversed at 6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,700. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a little further? to the 0.764? more?? sure -- but you're better off dollar cost averaging your buys down here instead of chasing the PERFECT bottom, only to get stuck in the gutter as the rocket leaves the launch pad. So I'm quite happy to have bought $7700, and will buy again $7350 and $6950 -- because going up from here, on the right wing of this harmonic pattern, I'm not going to look back and care that much about a few hundred dollars at the entry point :P
As for timing - we're finishing this descending wedge, and falling until something kicks the market. And right now the looming "news event" (which often causes the market to stall in anticipation) is the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Argentina on Monday the 19th. It seems that cryptocurrency will be on the agenda.
So just like the senate hearings, where the world waited and held its breath, dumping alllllll the way up to the fateful day only to have nothing but positive news from the hearing itself -- we're still slumping in this wedge. The 19th provides the perfect intersection of rising trendlines, the 0.764 retrace fib, and this selloff, making $7350 my favorite entry point, but holding some reserve bids at $6950 as well, just in case bears try to spook the market by breaking a few trendlines at the last second and stop hunting. All it will take is the slightest whiff of favorable news from the world's finance misters, praising the blockchain or at least NOT banning crypto, to light the rocket.
Throughout this selloff, I've been forecasting and trading reversals based on the 0.705 OTE retrace (no, it's not a proper fib ratio). This has been dependable enough that I'm confident to buy in this zone, and to sell when we reach 14-16K. Here's a few examples of this retrace in action (many are too small to be seen on this daily scale, see related charts below):
NOTE -- if your purpose in commenting below is just to spam your own charts (thinking you'll get more attention here) and shout me down, please do us all a favor, and go away. Contrary interpretations are always welcome, just don't be a dick about it
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4H view, with an estimate of when G20 conference news might hit. Just went with noon Argentina time (I think). That's enough time for them to get their coffee and drop a press release. Inside this descending wedge, that gives us a little tiny room for up to 8K at most, then the timing would intersect with the wedge bottom at 7200.
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15min view, with us working on the ABC correction from this last 5-wave impulse down. And no, I'm not an Elliot guy at all, so don't crucify my wave count :P
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it would seem 7250 was the magic number ;) that's looking like a solid rebound developing
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bulls continue to crush bear dreams, next battle 10K, where we wrestle with the major downtrend line that has denied the bulls before
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we were stuck inside the 4H cloud during this minor pullback. Bulls too eager to even allow a solid retrace to a full 50%, and we popped out the cloud top
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bitcoin loves nothing more than a full rally retrace. make you question every moonish hope you have, shake out all your coins -- and then finally take off once you've already given up :P So maybe this is what the path looks like now. Yes, trendlines broke -- but I've held through enough fakeouts to know that trendlines are not sacred. If this 6900 zone doesn't hold, time to reconsider. But for now, 7300 was still a great entry. Hold onto your butts, expect whiplash
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And just for reference - seems we finally reached the low target of my original series at 6.9K, just took a little bounce trip to get there ;)
if the above harmonic reflection chart plays out, we're still quite capable of reaching 14.5K mid-April
you just drew random triangles on your chart to my mind. they don't meet niether the set of harmonic patterns rules nor advanced patterns rules. neither they resemble pesavento gartley nor beck's gartley. These type of pattern should have specific fibonacci ratios in B-point, C-point and D-point. All the possible ratio variations were already tested by professionals so you can't invent something new. to my mind a trader/analist should only use the methods that he backtested and found profitable. especially the one who is voted as a TOP on TradingView list.
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@Alexander_Nikitin, I get shit from strict harmonic purists all the time. I get it. I know there's all sorts of brilliant mathematical thought that went in to them. But after years in the crypto market, I've seen enough "fuzzy" patterns play out exactly like their "strict" counterparts. We're not a bunch of highly-trained institutional professionals. Crypto traders are a motley bunch of amateurs like myself, not even the whales are particularly sophisticated. Lots of us just got stupid lucky and rich buying early and THEN attempted to learn trading and TA afterwards. So with that kind of a trading market, where so many aren't concerned at all with precise ratios -- they still respond to the patterns because they see them in the price action, and trade accordingly. This results in even "shitty" patterns resolving as expected, and that's worth trading.
Alexander_Nikitin
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@ronfkingswanson, what years of crypto market you are talking about?? what is the number behind "enough "fuzzy" patterns play out"?? 5-6? You make me laugh. Nothing works as expected until thousands of examples analyzed and math expectancy is calculated.
Patterns appear because professional traders meet the crowd. Based on the bitcoin chart I see plenty of evidence that professional TA traders took part in priceaction formations. These formations are absolutely the same one can find in other markets. If there were no professional traders on crypto market then its movement would never resemble any pattern.
But I agree with you when you say that you are a gambler. This was exactly what I ment saying "your triangles are random"
Poukitoun
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@Alexander_Nikitin, I would love to see your perfect triangles...His info is shared for free and everyone is welcome to comment so we can all improve in this community. You are welcome to comment but I found your comment rude and not very constructive.
Alexander_Nikitin
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@Poukitoun, Click on my name and go to my page. You will find thousands of them. Shared absolutely for free. If you find my comments rude then read them again and again until you get the meaning.
KasperElsborg
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@Poukitoun, here is a perfect triangle-a BAT pattern. I tried to write to ronfkingswanson earlier in the thread suggesting that is was a BAT and not a Gartley. I know it could be a lucky punch, and I 'm not trying to disrespect anyone here, but you got to admit that it was a perfect hit. I entered at 5260 (xbteur)
Acel
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@Alexander_Nikitin, I think the same staff when i see some random EW drawn here and there.
Alexander_Nikitin
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@Acel, Well, I always hope that the person had some rule based approach but my hope almost never come true. The majority of them draw none-rule based something:)
Crypt0zTrading
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Probably the most sensible chart I've seen in weeks.
elshanti
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@Crypt0zTrading, the chart might look sensible ..but BTC is definitely Not !