Bitcoin seems to remain in low position intraday and on the daily itself. Still at the mercy of the big red candle before it, it doesn't look like it's about to go "to the moon" anytime soon. A waiting game, at least a bounce on support before any reactions can logically take place. React before that, you're at risk. Hence the "up or down" analysis.
Anyone who thinks you shouldn't analyse both sides of the chart does not know how to trade.
Bear in mind that had the red candle get negated, the bulls would more likely have something interesting to talk about. Until then, we're going to support then seeing if it goes up on a bounce, or below it for a breakout. It's a key technical level, not just some random space on the chart.
Where do YOU think price is headed? Leave a comment with a chart and let's share our thoughts!
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Next monday Italy will quarrel with the EU about its budget underlining the fatal flaw in the Eurozone (which is that there is no way to force budget compliance). That NYT article explains well how it could lead to another sovereign debt crisis and may predicate a repeat of 2008 if large banks wobble. This time willingness to prop them up is far, far lower than a decade ago. If that happens, BTC will shine in comparison.
I wish there were other ways for crypto to gain traction because this crisis will be so much worse than the 2008 one.
themaniac3010
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@Braller, I totally agree. Italy will undoubtly increase the deficit with the outlined policies causing a yield spike in Italian treasuries. They will be the next nation to default bringing the total of citizines who need to be bailed out by the rest to 40 percent. The worst part is that French banks and Deutsche Bank are one of the biggest holders of Italian debt. If this causes France to default the total of countries in the Eurozone in need of European bailouts rises to 60 percent. One doesn't have to be a mathematician to understand that 40 percent can't bail out the remaining 60. Regarding Deutsche Bank the effect on the global economy could be cataclismic. It's no secret that problems for DB are synonymus with problems for all global financial institutions.
In addition, the Fed's rate hikes and the US bond market moving out of bull territory will cause further problems for the global economy. In my opinion we witnessed the beginning of the collapse of a global debt bubble on Wednesday.
JiCottrill
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@themaniac3010, kinda glad that Australia is sheltered from some of this stuff that happens. Only major thing that hits us hard is when China slows down. Given that copper purchases are down, something is about to plunge big time...
themaniac3010
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@JiCottrill, I don't think Australia will be spared. In fact, higher interest rates overseas are already affecting Australia's real estate market with the rest of the economy shortly following if downward pressure in global stock markets keeps increasing which it will imo. There will be cascading effects all over the place just like an earthquake affects places hundreds of kilometers away. China will most definitely see her economy collapse n due to hot money outflows which will only increase with further rate hikes in England and the US. There are already monthly defaults of Chinese zombie companies and their real estate market might be the biggest housing bubble ever: youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM In addition if the US economy collapses the Chinese lose their biggest customer. The US tariffs already caused the Shanghai Composite to drop over 20% till February. Imagine what will happen if there's additional loss of demand in the US due to a recession.
Crypto-GT
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@Braller, @themaniac3010 you forget positive BTC correlation with emerging markets. On top of that BTC along with all other crypto is currently viewed as an ultra high-risk investment. During every global crisis, money flows to the SAFEST assets, not to the riskiest ones. As a result, if a global debt crises were to emerge expect gold, silver etc to skyrocket while BTC, crypto, emerging markets etc goes through the floor. This is exactly what happened in 2009 through to 2011. Just a thought to keep in mind.
themaniac3010
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@omgvoy, For now I hope that the sell off was caused by traders who have received margin calls in the stock market and needed liquidity. The same thing happened to gold and silver in the months leading up to the financial crisis and again in 2011 when markets took a dive.
If I don't see a convincing decoupling of BTC from financial markets in the coming months my view will definitely begin to shift in your direction.
What I'm also worried about is downward pressure due to deflationary forces caused by higher interest rates and a demand for cash when assets are being sold left and right. Maybe precious metals and crypto will become way cheaper nominaly before central banks will again try to save the economy with low interest rates and further quantitative easing letting inflation run wild.
themaniac3010
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@omgvoy, but yeah precious metals should definitely be part of one's portfolio. We know how they behave during a crisis for crypto we can't tell for sure until the next one happens.
Braller
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@omgvoy, I agree, BTC has shown growth in Venezuela, Argentina and other countries recently. For Venezuela especially when compared to the Bolivar, BTC is a safe and incorruptible hedge. What I am looking for is a signal that more people will hedge some of their money into crypto. It doesn't take much money at all and some of that could come from regular investors in the EU looking to spread some risk. I agree that the first impulse on BTC of a Eurozone crisis would be downward but in the medium and long term the benefits for BTC at least could be positive. Thanks for the comment!
karuselli
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@Braller, Interesting, I do think in this case the short term might be tough for crypto too. Although can't tell would be interesting to see for sure.
themaniac3010
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@Braller, Yes, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and the EMs all saw their trading volume in crypto increase that's why I still have hopes that some cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin will decouple from financial markets once the weather gets too windy. I.e. the trading volume on Turkish exchanges jumped over 100 percent back in August. Maybe this will look like just a minor move when we look back in a few years. If we are lucky the demand for precious metals and bitcoin will increase much faster than deflationary forces put downward pressure on them.
My plan is to put aside some greed and buy before the collapse even if there could be a short term decrease in value in the beginning of the cirsis. It's way to risky to miss out on physical metals or the massive spike to the upside once stagflation sets in for a minor deflationary discount. If one doesn't want to miss out on completely on a potential move to the downside it may be a good idea to diversify and hold some additional cash which should be included in a crisis proof portfolio anyway in my opinion. It was my pleasure! Thank you, too!
Next monday Italy will quarrel with the EU about its budget underlining the fatal flaw in the Eurozone (which is that there is no way to force budget compliance). That NYT article explains well how it could lead to another sovereign debt crisis and may predicate a repeat of 2008 if large banks wobble. This time willingness to prop them up is far, far lower than a decade ago. If that happens, BTC will shine in comparison.
I wish there were other ways for crypto to gain traction because this crisis will be so much worse than the 2008 one.