Last month I shared a chart of an equal-weight crypto basket suggesting crypto may be on the cusp of fresh All Time Highs -- those highs have arrived! While that is certainly exciting for crypto holders one should take note of other aspects of the rally.
USD Decline
The US Dollar is down a whopping 10% against a basket of foreign currencies this year, lead ostensibly by President Trump's raucous political policies, most notably aggressive tariffs across the globe and industries. The crypto rally therefore could be characterized as more of a Dollar softening than a crypto strengthening.
Bitcoin v Gold
Bitcoin - still the epicenter of all things crypto has not topped Gold.
Gold in fact has been on a heater of late against the Dollar.
Many folks still regard Gold as "real money". As such crypto could be said to be in a "stealth bear market", especially considering the declining momentum against Gold while failing to match its highs.
Bitcoin v Stocks
Bitcoin is also strongly correlated to US equity performance, despite claims that it's a hedge. The correlation has only grown stronger as Bitcoin's price against the Dollar has soared.
That said, it does consistently outperform equities, as long as the music is still playing!
Closing Thoughts
Most people likely don't care about how Bitcoin is faring against Gold. Bitcoin, the highest quality form of crypto is itself still highly speculative. While an equal-weight basket of cryptos is impressively reaching an all time high against the Dollar, coins with smaller market caps will surely be the first to go when this speculative impulse subsides.
There's probably still some gas in the tank at this point, but now is a good time to consider trimming positions before you miss the chance 🤑
- The US Dollar has depreciated substantially against foreign currencies this year (2025)
- Bitcoin has yet to reach a fresh high against Gold
- Bitcoin is strongly correlated to US equities, which are also at all time highs
USD Decline
The US Dollar is down a whopping 10% against a basket of foreign currencies this year, lead ostensibly by President Trump's raucous political policies, most notably aggressive tariffs across the globe and industries. The crypto rally therefore could be characterized as more of a Dollar softening than a crypto strengthening.
Bitcoin v Gold
Bitcoin - still the epicenter of all things crypto has not topped Gold.
Gold in fact has been on a heater of late against the Dollar.
Many folks still regard Gold as "real money". As such crypto could be said to be in a "stealth bear market", especially considering the declining momentum against Gold while failing to match its highs.
Bitcoin v Stocks
Bitcoin is also strongly correlated to US equity performance, despite claims that it's a hedge. The correlation has only grown stronger as Bitcoin's price against the Dollar has soared.
That said, it does consistently outperform equities, as long as the music is still playing!
Closing Thoughts
Most people likely don't care about how Bitcoin is faring against Gold. Bitcoin, the highest quality form of crypto is itself still highly speculative. While an equal-weight basket of cryptos is impressively reaching an all time high against the Dollar, coins with smaller market caps will surely be the first to go when this speculative impulse subsides.
There's probably still some gas in the tank at this point, but now is a good time to consider trimming positions before you miss the chance 🤑
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.